for 2024 I tripled my dca amounts, and i did a little bit of guessing;
- I think that for this year my avg cost price will be about 45k$usd
- 2025 ATH will be about 140k$usd and with the next correction cycle the ATL will be 49k - 56k$usd range
My thought process is that I'm accumulating now in 2024 at the probably the next ATL range in 2026/7.
Im not overly concerned about avg cost price, and that was my biggest learning from 2023. I ran the numbers and I would prefer to have more btc and higher avg cost price, than less btc and a lower cost price.
I'm quite liking the resiliency of the btc market in light of all this etf stuff, i'm starting to think that this might disrupt the 4 yr cycle though in the future. I would imagine too that the skittishness of wall street may also cause deeper dips too, as much as people are bullish on new money entering the market, the money leaving the market could also increase. Is it about to get wilder in the wild wild west?
This is also my thought on accumulation right now. I'm guessing end of cycle bottom may be anywhere between $60k to $35k. As mentioned before, I'm in Bitcoin for the long haul with no need to sell for many years. Therefore, buying now is the same as buying at the hypothetical cycle bottom (or better).
I too am curious how Wallstreet money will affect the cycles. I know ultimately the hope is that Bitcoin vs USD is "more stable". As you mentioned, "big money" could also have the opposite effect. It is hard to say if they will treat Bitcoin as a Digital Gold or if they will treat it as a manipulation playground. Time will tell.