Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 03:48:02 AM

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 22, 2024, 11:15:28 PM

but another issue could come from being in an investment for a long time, there can be senses of the cycles

What do you mean by senses of cycles, I'm not really clear on this. Or do you mean when a person has become so used to a pattern that it becomes hard to change or adapt to new strategies?

I was merely referring to bitcoin's historical 4 year cycle that could potentially cause folks to try to time the cycle, and maybe if they have already accumulated enough bitcoin, they might not end up damaging themselves by adjusting their behaviors in accordance what they believe to be the cycle - yet the cycle is not guaranteed, so if they play cycles badly, they could end up getting way off track from what their goals had been, which was to accumulate BTC and to get to fuck you status, but if you end up selling too many BTC too soon, then you might never end up making progress to accumulate enough BTC in order to really get to the kinds of levels of wealth that you would have otherwise been capable if you had merely just stayed on track and followed a more conservative strategy. .. and yeah, it could be the case that the one who takes more risk ends up doing better, so I cannot tell you with any kind of confidence what is the best strategy for your particular circumstances and even if you might end up having some insight into ways to manage your bitcoin accumulation that might end up out performing a more strict and persistent DCA strategy.

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 22, 2024, 11:15:28 PM

I usually consider that a person who has accumulated a lot of BTC might start to slow down a bit on his DCA and would more likely start to favor buying on the dip, but surely it is relative. If a person is trying to reach fuck you status (which is traditionally consider to be between 20-30 years of salary/expenses saved/invested), and he has ONLY saved up/invested less than 1 year of annual salary/expenses, he may still be fairly aggressively inclined towards DCA; however, if he is getting to a point of having 3-5 years of salary/expenses saved/invested, then he might start becoming more strategic, and if he is getting into the neighborhood of 8-10 years of salary/investment saved/invested, he might change his strategies even more. Part of the reasons for the changes in the strategies is that any new contribution that he makes into his investment/savings is likely not adding as much value as is the price appreciation or depreciation of his investment.

Based on this I understand as a person continue to mature in his investment, he would continue to become more strategic around his allocations and strategies in bitcoin either to get more bitcoin(or reach a certain level of accumulation) or to make more profit from it.

A person could also decide to DCA a smaller amount into bitcoin and to start to buy some other asset (I am not referring to shitcoins). If you have 90% bitcoin and 10% cash and you don't have any other investments, you might start to feel overly lopsided, and you probably should...even though some people do play those kinds of ways too.. which I think has been too volatile, but it also depends on your lifestyle, your obligations, whether you have a family to support and maybe other kinds of considerations.

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

Like you've said before if a newbie is more concerned about profit on his first years of investing, it could either cause him not to hold much or even he might diviate from his DCA, since he has become more profit minded.

People get scared if they are new, and if you had never invested into anything and you invest $1k into bitcoin, and maybe after a year or two it ends up being $10k or $20k, you might start to get nervous and not know how to deal with that.. because it had happened so quickly.

Think about 2015 BTC went from $250 to $19,666, which is about a 78x price appreciation in slightly more than 2 years to late 2017, and so something like that could have had created some problems for some people to know what to do, even if they might have ONLY had a few thousand invested, and yeah we do not necessarily need to be so extreme in order to make the point that difficulties can ensue, including the person who might have cashed out everything after a 10x price increase to around $2,500 and then thinking that he might buy back, but then also maybe spending some of the profits, but then when the BTC price went shooting u another 7.8x or so, then there might have been some second guessing and even buying back in and other dilemmas that could have had been caused by not timing matters well.

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

But a more mature investor can be more profit minded cause he can now align his allocations and strategies in a way that would be to make more profit form his investment and the level they call fuck you status could also determine their approach to buying. So like we have agreed before our senerios and strategies might continue to change based on different factors and the one we know for now is individuals, I was also thinking don't you think things like market trend could affect how a more mature investor and newbie would approach the market and plan out their senerios, cause it would be hard for me to say that if all mature investors would consider a bearish market as worse case.

I personally like to create plans in which the price comes to me, so I don't try to guess which way it is going to go, and so I don't really like the idea of selling any BTC unless there is a feeling that you don't need that BTC, and it takes a certain level of overaccumulation of BTC to be able to comfortably carry out something like that.

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

An investor could also be in his 8-10 years range and still looking to get more bitcoin, so he might seem to be aggressive towards a bear market than a bull market an at this point he could have even reach his fuck you status as planned by him but just wishes to get more bitcoin.

Well, in traditional investments, a person could spend 30 to 40 years investing and still not get close to getting to fuck you status, and whether he had put away 10% of his salary or maybe he ends up making a lot of mistakes and dipping into it or not really putting in 10% of his salary, so actually getting to entry level fuck you status is a pretty BIG accomplishment, and if you are starting out with zero investments, then maybe you could be able to shave down the time to get to entry-level fuck you status to 15-20 years instead of 30-40 years, but still you could have a dilemma in regards to whether you measuring the value of your assets correctly and accounting for likely increases in the cost of living and also debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies. So guys might feel that getting to entry level fuck you status is not enough, and they need some cushion, which is part of the reason that I believe that using the 200-week moving average is amongst the best of ways to valuate your bitcoin, and I think that guys could work with my sustainable withdrawal ideas once they get to that stage.. but surely there is a need to get there first or get close to that point and/or to make sure that there is desire to pull the fuck you lever, but at the same time.. if a guy is truly happy with working, then it could well be that he wants to continue to actively build his wealth, even though he is going to have a lot of empowerment to have the option to quit any time that he wants rather than being forced to continue to have to work.

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 22, 2024, 11:15:28 PM

Previously I had considered that ONLY getting to fuck you status would be the goal to bounce out of a DCA strategy, but part of the problem with that kind of analysis is that maybe a guy might have created an accumulation goal for himself of something like 10% or even 25%, but then if he ends up over investing during times in which the BTC price was relatively low, then he might feel over allocated, and if the BTC price goes up 2x, 3x, 5x, 10x or some other amounts, then he feels even more over allocated, and might become reluctant to invest more into BTC, even though he might still not be close to fuck you status.

This individual here shows a totally different characteristics from the once you have used from your other examples. In his case he feels satisfied with how his short term investment has been even tho he hasn't reached his desired level of accumulation in his portfolio. But if the bitcoin price corrects and maybe goes back to 2x,

Yeah, but it still might not be a good idea to play around too much.. maybe the solution is to just HODL and to invest in other things when he gets nervous about being overallocated.. even though maybe it would be better to just continue to DCA into bitcoin or maybe he can compromise and cut his DCA amount down so that he is still putting some into BTC, but at the same time either building up his cash or building up; some of his other investments (and not referring to shitcoins), and I am not saying the choices are easy, but they are much easier to make once you are in the situation rather than hypothesizing about the various possibilities prior to actually being in the situation.

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

he might also begin his journey again or is it possible that to avoid cases like this we set a limit for ourselves to not allocate more than a certain amount in a month or weeks or at any intervals we chose.

Sure, there could be various ways to deal with the matter, but it makes more sense once you get into that kind of situation to have some ideas of various ways to attempt to deal with the matter.

Some guys reallocate at various locations along the way, and I personally don't really like that approach, and I subscribe more to the idea of letting your winners ride, but that can still leave you in problematic places when an extra-ordinary correction ends up coming..and then maybe some additional funny feelings and second guessing about "I could have done x, y or z". Some guys are not going to have those kinds of regrets and are just going to roll with the volatility, even though factually there is a kind of fact of the matter about benefits that could have happened by selling higher and buying back lower, even if it is just some of the portfolio.. like 10-20% rather than all of it.

Quote from: Troytech on January 23, 2024, 11:18:18 PM

Now this is major case of individual preference, another person might be fired up to invest more into bitcoin and even decide to increase his allocations from 25% to maybe 30% and decide to be a little more aggressive.

Yeah, but the lopsidedness of the allocation likely does not come from how much he invested, but from the fact that BTC ended up outperforming all of his other assets... let's go back to the $50k investment portfolio and the guy might have invested 5% or 10% into bitcoin, so his investment was merely $2,500 or $5k, but if he accomplished that in 2015, then in two years the regular portfolio might go from $50k to $70k (which would be very good to get 40% out of two years), but the BTC went from $5k to $300k, so then the BTC portion of the investment would end up being quite lopsided if the total investment portfolio is $370k then the BTC portion is 81%... so it did not even become 81% because the guy was overly aggressive, but in the $5k scenario, he was merely investing a modest amount of 10% into BTC and that 10% became 81%, and that is not very unusual in various bitcoin historical patterns, even though it is also not even close to guaranteed to repeat itself, but if something like that were to repeat itself, it is better to attempt to have some kind of a meaningful plan rather than having no plan, and we do not even have to agree upon the plan since there is plenty of discretion in regards to various ways to attempt to deal with the matter.. but not as easy to make the plan during the heat of going through the matter, but it is likely better to have a plan in advance and to attempt to somewhat follow through with your plan, even if you might tweak it a bit and maybe even make a few mistakes, but hopefully the mistakes are relatively minor mistakes rather than being the kind of mistakes that would completely take you out of the game.

Quote from: I_Anime on January 23, 2024, 11:23:23 PM

Quote from: Humblevirus on January 23, 2024, 11:01:22 PM

[edited out]

depends on the strategies of the particular investor though. Imo before taking action in doing any investment always ensure to have a back up cash than to just go all in, you going all in. Have already given you the mindset that yah hope is on your investment and that can of investing are not normally for long time because you would be in eager in withdrawing your investment.

Personally, I do not like ideas of "going all in" to investments...

To me, it sounds like gambling and or trading rather than investing.

Even though I get the idea that reserve funds can be saved up in order to have extra cash that goes beyond regular DCA buying to be able to inject into your BTC investment at various points along the way, especially at various dippening points.

Quote from: Agbamoni on January 23, 2024, 11:57:16 PM

@Jayjuangee and everyone which do you prefer should be priority?

1. Building your emergency fund first before investing

2. Start investing immediately and leave emergency fund for later

3. Do both of them simultaneously

Well? What are you starting with? Absolutely nothing? Most people will have a couple of weeks or even a month's emergency fund, just as a kind of float, so maybe sometimes they will be pushed to the limits, and yeah maybe if they are sloppy then many times they end up running out completely with their float, so if you are not being responsible with your float, then you are not really in a position to invest into anything, and if you have a month's float, even at the worst time of the month, then you at least have a little bit of wiggle room to start to invest into bitcoin, and so maybe your first few months you are not really investing very much, so if your BTC investment gets to be the same size as one or two months of your expenses, then you better have your float and a bit of an emergency fund, otherwise you are going to end up having to sell some of your coins and/or you are engaging in gambling.

The more that your bitcoin investment gets to be greater than a month or two of the size of your monthly expenses, the more likely you need an emergency fund of at least the same amount, so the recommended amount is 3-6 months of expenses for your emergency fund, and surely the stronger your emergency fund, then the more aggressive that you can be with your BTC investing (DCA) without devolving into gambling, so yeah, nothing wrong with simultaneously building it, but it just seems reckless to cause your BTC to grow to be greater than the size of your emergency fund because then it is really serving as your emergency fund, which is a really poor practice an probably part of the reason that so many newbies are not able to hang onto their coins for even a whole cycle because they cannot even get passed the basics in terms of developing practices that are not gambling.. because they get too greedy in terms of wanting their money to work for them (by being invested into BTC) but their money is not going to be working for them if they end up having to cash out some or all of it based on preventative measures that were easily within their abilities to NOT get too greedy.

Quote from: I_Anime on Today at 12:13:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 23, 2024, 11:23:39 PM

[edited out]

I guess most time on Tuesday market do undergo some certain corrections. So setting your regular DCA at that ain't bad.
Raking method or strategies is actually nice. That would really help in accumulating profit in short period of time with minimize risk compare to that of leverage trading. Yah I don't think I would classify that as trading but in order to exercise raking you need to have accumulate alot of BTC that when you be able to gain profitably well. The profits would varies but when the coin is rising you would also accumulate good profit too. And that would good if you planning to withdraw from your investment you could withdraw the profits you made from the raking theory.

If you are interested in the raking topic, you might want to look at my investment ideas thread and sustainable withdrawal thread and also look at risto's thread that I refer to in my investment ideas thread.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2022, 10:59:14 PM

I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

Quote from: Mayor of ogba on Today at 12:36:16 AM

Quote from: Sim_card on January 23, 2024, 10:12:55 AM

[edited out]

Not everyone who is accumulating bitcoin with the DCA strategy has the same financial power to save a reserved fund after saving the fund that will take care of their financial needs. So I agree with Odohu that someone used his bitcoin DCA fund to buy something else because there will be a situation where you will find yourself handling a project and your emergency fund will not be enough to finish up the project, and there is nowhere you can get money in the short term. You will have no choice but to skip buying bitcoin for some weeks so that you will be able to finish up the project.

That is part of the reason that people diversify also, and they will have various kinds of funds so that they draw from the fund that is going to be most advantageous for them to draw from, which could supplement an emergency fund if it is very liquid, and so one of the temptations that people have with bitcoin is to cash out of it quickly because it is so liquid, and maybe some other funds might take them several days to get cash from them, and sometimes they need cash right away.. or let's say some unexpected expenses come up and they have to be paid within 15 days or within 30 days, and so there is a bit of flexibility, but maybe not enough for certain kinds of funds, so frequently emergency funds will be held in cash or maybe in some kind of an account that earns interest, but it might not earn enough interest in order to account for how fast the cash is losing value.

When you are talking about a project you are not necessarily talking about an emergency, but you could end up in a bad situation, if you had started a project, and so you have enough money for it and maybe you just slightly dip into your emergency fund because you think that you will be able to replenish your emergency funds within the next few weeks or no later than 30days - however, as you do all of those things and you think that you have it under control, then there ends up being cost overruns or something that involves work already done or maybe some accident happens with the project so it is going to cost around 20% to 30% more than expected, and there can be some kinds of expenses that are deferrable and a matter of preference, but there can be other kinds of expenses that need to get carried out right away otherwise it might end up costing even more if they are not completed.. for example a roof falls in or catches on fire. and then if you don't repair it right away you will end up getting water damage or other kinds of risks if you try to employ inadequate temporary measures.

Thanks, this is truly helpful, was actually thinking where I could get such information. When you mentioned about raking theory in your reply in this thread, actually drag my interest so I tried making some research about it but wasn't getting a clearer picture about it (or may be is the way I research about it) but now this links have just save me the stress. Normally as an investor you must have the Jill to learn about new things, and this forum as being helping me so far with that expecially this thread concerning holding and investment. Though haven't spend much time here in this thread but I can see the changes due to the impacting of other knowledgeable and experienced users on this thread with their epic ideas about investment and other stuffs
thanks. Grin