Well, I still remember last season Arsenal even had a big point difference with the team that was in 2nd place at that time. And if I'm not mistaken, last season Man City also slumped and was ranked 3rd for a while. But unfortunately Arsenal continued to get a draw at the end of the season and on the other hand, Man City continued to win and made Man City succeed in overtaking Arsenal. Last season a surprise also came from Man United. they were bad at the start of the season but they improved at the end of the season and continued to win matches which made them finally get a UCL ticket.
This season, Man City and Liverpool may indeed look the most convincing in fighting for the title this season. But conditions can turn around quickly. But I'm sure Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal are the 3 teams that will get tickets to the UCL. Meanwhile, Aston Villa and Tottenham will probably fight for the 4th UCL ticket. And regarding the championship title, I think it is still difficult to see who will get it. Because the small difference in points means anything can still happen.
Arsenal have not yet secured anything for themselves, just like Aston Villa, and it is too early to say that Arsenal has more chances than Aston Villa, besides, Tottenham is quite good this season, so for these three the whole fight is ahead. Arsenal is prone to not very good series, they can lose several matches in a row against not the strongest teams, if they repeat this again before the end of the season, they may even be left without the Champions League zone.