Bitcoin will not reach a new ATH before the halving, not because it has never happened in past times but because maybe it’s struggling even right now. Imagine if someone said that Bitcoin wouldn’t touch $70k because it hadn’t done it before. Some speculations are just not it.
Frankly, I feel that the shock comes from the fact that everyone was expecting the price to rise after the news of the ETF getting approval, or that the price would collapse if that approval was not obtained, but what happened is that the approval was obtained, and yet the price did not rise. The shock is more psychological than an analysis of the price.
Proves how the market doesn’t move based on what we wish for but based on its own direction. I hope people aren’t overhyped about the halving too or it could be worse.