Don't consider me interfering with your bet because if anyone here were to have such confidence to take such a bet that is likely 50/50 even in the best case scenarios.. and probably more likely in your favor..maybe even 60/40 in your favor (especially since we ONLY passed above $40k right around 14 hours ago), then surely such person is having a lot of confidence for likely unsupported, guessing and gambling reasons.. .

Another point is that I personally see no reason to be making those kinds of BIG bets of 0.1BTC if there is some kind of desire to really try to take these price prediction matters seriously.  There is probably no reason to bet more than 0.001 BTC.. unless you have been battling around these ideas for a while some guy and you have some kind of beef or point to make, but yeah, maybe some guys want to show their balls and their conviction, but it seems a bit unnecessary to me, at least this early in the bet negotiations.. which apparently you do want to show some level of conviction (and maybe you are getting emotional about it), but with a bet that already seems to be in your favor.. not completely but from my perspective, you are not really saying much of anything too controversial.. even though surely there could be some guys in these here parts who are going to want to take the other side of a bet that seems to be in your favor or maybe willing to take such a bet for mere funzies .. which sure maybe some guys might be willing to have your proposed amount of BTC at stake.. whether an escrow is needed or not might be another story.

Now earlier you were making some BIGGER claims about being able to buy in the lower $30ks, and since you were making those statements when the BTC price was around $46k, the price has moved in your favor and we have so far gotten around a 21% correction, and so maybe you have not yet bought back in? 

If you have not bought back in, then you must at least be wanting to suggest that you are still waiting for lower than our current local low of $38.5k-ish.  If you want to bet something about that local low, then you may well get some more takers, even though probably even the sub $38.5k might ONLY have around 50/50 odds.. but maybe you have more confidence than some other guys.. but it might be a more fair bet.. . an so far you have been directionally correct in terms of a pretty good size correction that we have gotten so far, but still have you reached your goals and have you already locked in some profits?  your squigglies might be telling you to wait and you are getting a bit anxious, no?

By the way, I am personally not even very interested in a bet that might be closer to 50/50 around $38.5k is going to break, and gosh, I am not sure if breaking to the downside of the don't wake me up zone would be much more than 50/50, either.. so I am probably not going to be betting any of the numbers.. except maybe if someone might want to suggest that we will break below the 200-week moving average within the next few months prior to the halvening, I  might be willing to take something like that.. and gosh if we were to push such terms oout for the whole of 2024, I might get a bit more skittish, even though I think that the odds are slightly favorable to not breaking below the 200-week moving average anytime in2024... I am not 100% confident but I would be willing to take it as a kind of gentleman's bet of around 50/50.. and perhaps even betting in the ballpark of 0.001 BTC.  I probably would not go higher than that, absent if there might be odds or something in there or some other kinds of funzies to make going higher worth it.

So are you ready to close your short yet?  or maybe if you had not shorted are you ready to get back into the long that you closed in the $48k arena?  #asking for a friend.

I am surely not going to deny that our current $42k-ish bounce could have been a dead cat... but some further UPpity for the weekend is feeling pretty good as a potential right now, even though like I said it could be a fake, so I am not going to get my hopes up too much, especially since I don't make those kinds of bets that would be trying to play waves or squigglies..

In my own situation, there has been quite a bit of action already in the past few months.. pretty much selling all the way up from $27k-ish to $49k-ish and maybe just a few times buying back, until finally this latest time around where we finally got a correction greater than 11%.  So this time around I already had a few buy orders fill between $38.5k and $45k-ish., and then I had a couple of further sales up into the lower $42ks.., Currently, my spreads are around $3k-ish.. and my increments are between $1,250 and $1,500..   Even though sometimes a feel a bit like a bot with no feelings, yet I am afraid of bots (something could go wrong.. not that I could program a bot anyhow), so I set and reset my buy/sell orders manually.