I mean if I knew what bitcoin would do, I would invest all my money into it right away, like with 150x leverage and all so that I would get rich just in a few days when the month is over. However, none of us really know it, maybe you are right and it will go down under 40k and you will make some money, the odds are quite good too, so you should feel fine, it is getting closer there.

However, it could also go up even more, like maybe in the last day it will be 45k ,who knows? This is why it is not going to be possible to tell you that you would win or lose, we have no idea what you will be getting. The only good thing about it right now is that you are not too far away, I mean you are not unrealistically away, it may happen and you have a chance.