Ramble over.
Apart from the bet (0.01 is still a tad too much IMHO - didn't JJG suggest 0.001? Not sure, not important.) Oops ahem I digress, apart from the bet - the analysis seems lucid to me.
Yes s/he did, and it is important, but for me 0.001 BTC could easily end up being a transaction fee when it comes down to it so not worth the hassle

I have more than 0.001 BTC in bounty funds that I'm not really fussed about losing. I'm aware it's "real money", but doesn't really feel earnt when it's mainly just me posting analysis in order to try and gauge some market sentiment (ie, it's self-serving). Having a bet on would also make me more active on here, which I've been meaning to be for some months now, especially leading into the halving.