If the FTX/Grayscale selling is basically over, and the sell-the-news market participants are done, both likely to be true at this point I think, then the ongoing large accumulating of bitcoin from the ETFs is going to start shocking the supply soon.
The withdrawal from Grayscale is not sell orders this means it is not that people are selling Bitcoin for fiat. It is just a transfer of ownership from FTX/Grayscale to BlackRock. Within a few months, we might start seeing the impact of the accumulation by these ETF providers on the price of Bitcoin.
That is simply not true. Much of the Grayscale selling has not be moved over to other ETFs. FTX alone sold over a billion dollars of bitcoin in grayscale. And there was estimated to be a couple billion dollars of money that came into grayscale in recent months with the intention of just using it as an arbitrage trade to pick up the difference in that negative NAV Grayscale had and then selling once that price difference disappeared upon being converted into an ETF. I'm sure SOME of Grayscale selling was people moving to ETFs with cheaper fees, likely at the very least half, and probably more, of the selling simply left the market and didn't go into another ETF.
No idea why you think all the grayscale selling is just going to other ETFs when that is very plainly not true.
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however it technically is true.. for both statements
the coins are sold.. but also the coins are bought (thats how trade works) the bought coins are then moved to blackrock
when coins unlock(within coinbase) from grayscale, they are sold for fiat. meaning FTX gets fiat (FTX dont retain the coins)
AP's for blackrock use fiat to buy baskets of btc within coinbase to lock into blackrock
they do it via coinbases hotwallet of coins.
unlocking-sell-buy-relocking
coins cannot move "in-kind" from grayscale to blackrock. they have to be sold at the custodian(coinbase) for cash and then bought in cash to then lock into the other ETF(via coinbase)
Yes a trade is someone buying what someone else is selling. Not sure what you're arguing here or why you are trying to describe what trading is haha, I understand how trades work :p
My point was to dispel the other person's mistaken assumption that all the grayscale selling was simply to move that money into other ETFs, which is very much false as perhaps a majority of grayscale selling was either arbitrage trades on the Grayscale NAV or FTX selling off their assets in Grayscale, and that money entirely left the market and did not move to other ETFs. ETFs are not a closed ecosystem simply buying and selling to one another.
A bunch of money left the market from Grayscale, some money got traded from Grayscale to other ETFs, and a bunch of new money came into the market through ETFs. Of the billions of dollars that actually left the market from Grayscale (was not simply moved to other ETFs), that selling had to be absorbed by the already existing spot market as well as the new money flowing into the other ETFs.
It does seem that people think the Grayscale exodus will be ending soon though, so that selling will dry up while the new money flowing into ETFs and the spot market will no longer have to absorb massive Grayscale leaving-the-market sell orders and so price will continue to recover and move up.
I was just pointing out the guy's very mistaken assumption, I wasn't arguing how trading works haha