Chart 1 shows the back-test of the Redneck Fourier indicator for cycle tops.



The log of bitcoin's daily closing price appears in blue, indexed by block height on the horizontal axis. Major grids mark the halvings, which occur every 210,000 blocks. Minor grids on quarter cycle, or about one year. Following the Redneck Fourier indicator, negative zero crossings indicate tops in bitcoin's halving price cycle. The idea in this chart is, wait for the negative zero crossing then sell or go short. But the RF can also be used to forecast.

Choose a rate of increase and draw a straight line, like this



The Redneck shows about when and where the market top is likely to occur, under conditions where bitcoin's price appreciates on that slope. Mark that point where the yellow and blue lines intersect on the graph. Repeat the exercise for different slopes and join the points in a line. Redneck thinks the price is going to bounce off that ceiling.



I performed a back-test of the prognostication function at block 630,000, plugging bitcoin's price history up to that point (dark blue) into the Redneck. The black line shows the Redneck's predicted ceiling. Pale blue shows what actually happened.



I ran the test again at block 650,000