As a long time hodler why do you need to be bothering yourself with watching the market? Your sole purpose is just to keep buying and don't let your attention be bothered by market activities. If your goal is to accumulate and hodl for 6 years and above, then the market timing is not something you should be bothering yourself with. You should just be concerned with getting steady flow of liquidity to inject in bitcoin. Any price you meet bitcoin when you liquidity is available you buy. Let the day traders bother themselves with the market timing.
Bitcoin market is volatile which can create different sentiments at any time among those who follow the market. Those who are committed to long-term holding would definitely do well to keep an eye on how to further diversify their portfolio. Those who understand the value of Bitcoin see the dumping of Bitcoin as an opportunity for them. Those who are short-term investors may be happy with small profits but a Bitcoin holder usually dreams big.
Are you saying that buying other coins in addition to Bitcoin is really diversification? I do not agree with you on this one because Bitcoin is enough to avoid mistake. I think the main focus of most of the people here is how to build their Bitcoin portfolio and not diversify into other coins that you are not sure if their founders will dump it and run away.
Many people have lost fortune investing in coins they were convinced will give them big profits. I expect you to learn from the mistakes of those people and concentrate in building your Bitcoin portfolio rather than thinking of diversifying when you are just exposing yourself to danger.
Many times in this thread we end up talking about diversification to become necessary after your bitcoin holding might become quite large and even several years the size of your annual expenses/income, and so you are correct that there is no reason to diversify within crypto.. since bitcoin is already a leader in the area, which largely means that other crypto (shitcoins) are dependent upon (or correlated to) bitcoin's performance, so there would not be much if any value to diversify into shitcoins. So, generally the concept of diversification would relate towards other sectors that are supposed to be non-correlated, such as equities, properties, bonds, commodities, and/or cash/or cash equivalents (again not referring to shitcoins). One of the problems with poor people getting into various shitcoins likely come from their not having access to other investments, so they might consider shitcoins as their best option, which may or may not excuse such behavior because if they mostly have bitcoin and they build up their wealth to several times their annual income/expenses, then surely at some point they might have enough value to diversify into various kinds of other traditional asset classes to the extent that it might be justifiable to invest in that direction.
Another problem that so many of us consider to exist with a variety of traditional asset classes is that they are so correlated to the debasement (and indebtedness) of the dollar and all other fiat currencies suffering similar or worse problems than the dollar, so in some of those senses, the various traditional asset classes suffer a kind of similar fate in regards to their being inflated beyond their true values and therefore overly correlated to the dollar (or the debt).
I will agree that newbies to investing likely do not need to think about diversifying at all until they get up to a certain quantity of value invested, whether that is a year or more or maybe some might consider that they would like to begin to diversify when they get to 25% to 50% of a year invested, which would ONLY be 3-6 months of their yearly salary/expenses, and surely those are personal choices, and surely many of us here would consider that there is no need to invest in shitcoins at all, but some folks who want to gamble and experiment and explore, then maybe if they are so inclined, then if they at least limit their investment into shitcoins towards less than 10% of the size of the value of their BTC holdings.. and hopefully not cheating too much in terms of continuing to siphon value from bitcoin if they lose their shitcoin investments (trades/gambles).