Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
JayJuanGee
on 03/02/2024, 23:52:58 UTC
[edited out]
Understanding, investment objectives, strategy, correct mindset, budget sources, time frames and investment and financial management are some of the interesting points that a potential investor needs to have. You won't necessarily be able to invest safely without sufficient knowledge, and you won't get a commensurate return if you don't have a goal for what you invest.

The basic concepts certainly need to be learned regardless of whether they are beginner investors or experienced investors. However, the difference is that both of them have different experiences and knowledge for this asset whose value fluctuates. The success of an investor depends on how they have understanding, strategy, financial management, investment management and risk control, so all of this must really be learned in order to be successful in investing.

I agree that it is good to learn those various areas, yet at the same time they can be learned as you go rather than prior to getting started.  Anyone can get started investing into bitcoin with bare minimum knowledge, and they can invest $10 per week while they figure out more specifics, including honing in on their own budget and financial management. 

Now off the top of their head, even if they are not very good at finances, most people have ballpark ideas about whether they can afford $10 per week or not.  Now they might not know how to manage their budget, and they might have a lot of debt and they might be having emergencies every month or maybe several times a year because they are not sufficiently spending lower than their income and/or keeping track of their cashflow versus expenses.. .but these are things that people can improve, even while starting to invest into bitcoin.

Now if they are not exactly clear about the level of their disposable income, they may need to get  more specific ideas prior to starting to invest more aggressively into bitcoin, such as increasing their investment to $100 per week or performing a lump sum investment of $5k... so the more aggressive that they choose to be, then the more they are going to need to know, and also if they build up their investment amount, then the more that they have invested, the more they could end up getting tempted to cash out at the wrong times or to engage in gambling behaviors rather than investing behaviors.. so most people can learn those kinds of things as they go, even though sometimes they are their worse enemy by doing before knowing.. so if the amounts are small enough, then it might not make a BIG difference, so that would mean that they have their risk management under control by not investing very much, but they may fail to realize their potential because they are not being as aggressive as they could be, including likely needs to pay attention to their whole cashflow situation and to make sure that they are spending reasonably within their discretionary income while maintaining some kind of an emergency fund, float and reserves. which becomes even more important as the investment into bitcoin grows. including accounting for the price changes that bitcoin can go through during the period in which someone is starting to invest into it.


There could be goals to stop working or there could be goals to be able to choose the kind of work that you would like to do. Money and/or an income stream has the potential of increasing quite a few options and even over a long time horizon, especially if you manage it well,
From the way I see it, it seems anyone could invest in bitcoin for any reason of their choice whether I would be as lame as trying to use the moni for a luxury trip or even going sky diving, and from the way I feel I could set a goal that would motivate me to even invest and hold more, liek buying my favourite house or even oweing a mega hair salon, I used to thi k it was limited to a certain kind of goals, since you know we are talking about investment, so I was expecting some strict reason to do it. But now I feel more free around my investment.

which truly are the kinds of things I try to argue within my sustainable withdrawal framework.
Wow that's new,  Do you mind explaining what sustainable withdrawal framework is?

Well the post that you quoted has a link contained in it:

>>>>which truly are the kinds of things I try to argue within my sustainable withdrawal framework.<<<<

so it may be more appropriate to talk about those kinds of questions within that thread rather than here, but the basic idea is that once we reach high enough levels of BTC accumulation, then we might start to feel that we are in a position to either just stop accumulating.. or we might move into the employment of various withdrawal frameworks that might be price based or they might be time based, and there are likely ways to construct the withdrawal approaches in such a way that you can start to live off of your BTC and perhaps not even needing to buy anymore BTC.. yet at the same time, part of the question would depend upon how much is enough, and have you structured your withdrawal in such a way that it won't deplete the quantity of BTC at a rate that is higher than its growth. 

For example, if we use the 200-week moving average as a way to measure the value of our BTC holdings, then we can see that historically (up until now), the 200 WMA has never increased less than 20% annualized, even though it's worst performance, so far was between June 2022 and November 2023 (and you can see that in my entry-level fuck you status chart), so it is not guaranteed that the 200-week moving average will continue to go up at least at the same rate as it has historically, the 200-WMA is also a delayed indicator, so there do seem to be ways to use it to our advantage, and even part of my theory that BTC may well be able to retain a higher withdrawal rate (6% to 10%) than traditional investments (which are usually at 4% annually), but if we are still concerned about the growth and/or maintenance of our BTC, then we might want to stick with a 4% withdrawal rate and to continue to allow our BTC value grow until maybe we might start to feel like increasing to a more aggressive rate.. perhaps gradually increasing the rate and monitoring the extent to which our BTC is sufficiently holding its value with our employed withdrawal rate.