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Indeed, Bitcoin is better than gold in many aspects, but I don't see it overtaking gold anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I don't think Bitcoin's market cap will come close to gold's in the next decade. The huge potential is there, of course, but it will certainly take a much longer term for a new hodler to gain what could be reached in a mere blink of an eye in the past.
For now, 4 years is more or less enough for a Bitcoin investor to be of profit. To those who will come late, however, those who will finally do the buying at $100,000, $120,000, or $150,000, a price they deserve, 4 years might not be enough for their investment to even double. In which case, a simple business venture might fare better.
Of course, we are free to have any kind of speculative view and/or framework that we like in terms of the likely sharpness of bitcoin's future price direction curve.. and/or how exponential it is likely to be.
I personally don't find anything wrong with being largely conservative, and I never really changed my expectations too much in regards to a kind of 6% per year (on average) price appreciation, even though I learned about the 200-week moving average and I have been somewhat obsessed with developing price theories around that in the past 3-4 years (and maybe it has been a bit longer than that), but I think that PlanB might have kind of subliminally sucked me into using the 200-WMA. Both
my fuck you status chart and
my ideas around sustainable withdraw gravitate around the 200-WMA.
So essentially I agree with you about past performance not being able to ensure future results, and also that we are likely to ongoingly continue to experience a lessening of the growth curve, yet at t