I don't have any problems with that kind of an assessment, even though if we are attempting to look at this realistically, there can be justification of several BTC accumulation techniques (referring to DCA, lump sum and buying on dips) being carried out simultaneously and being reassessed from time to time - since surely guys are going to want to maximize their ability to catch dips if they can, yet at the same time, at any given time, it may or may not be practical to be waiting for dips.
When I was new to Bitcoin I used Lump Sum technique. But with time I came to know that DCA is another way and when I tried I came to know about its benefits. I think it take time before people understand DCA and Lump Sum.
The only problem with dips is that we are not sure when they are occuring. Figuring out the dips is most crucial part if you are investing in "buying on dips".
There are ways to attempt to invest somewhat blindly in dip-buying too, which would be that you set ladder buy orders. I had already given such an example, but maybe I can try again.
Let's say that you are brand new to bitcoin, and over the past 10 years, you have built up about a $50k investment portfolio in various other investments, and so your annual income is about $40k per year.. and so you have right around 120% of a year's worth of income in your investment portfolio. Let's say that you also have right around $3.4k saved up in cash that you can invest into bitcoin (or anything else if you wanted to, but you have already decided upon bitcoin), and you make enough that you can invest $100 per week ($2,600) over the next 6 months.
So if your total investment allocation for bitcoin is $6k for the next 6 months, but you ONLY have $3,400 in cash right now, you could decide to invest half ($1.7k) of your available cash as a lump sum and the other half ($1.7k) to save for buying on dips, and so you can set those buying on dips however, you like with a possible expectation that you are not going to use up all of the $1,700 in the next 6 months... .but if you are considering that the current 200-week moving average of $30,750 is at or around the bottom, then you might want to structure your buys around that. So for example, if you made your initial lump sum buy of $1,700 at $43k, then maybe you could structure your buys down from $41k to $30k.. which would be 11 buy orders ($155 each) if they were every $1k, and that would be right around 17 buy orders ($100 each) if you structured them every $750. and so you can set up your buy order increments and your amounts however you like in order to dedicate the remainder of your cash for buying on dips.
So right now, you might not know if after 6 months you would have had invested all of your $6k into BTC which currently would be right around 11% of your total investment portfolio (that is $56k =( $50k + $6K))... and maybe if you had not reached such a target, then you continue to invest $100 per week into bitcoin until you reach whatever might be your target. and you can move around your buying on dip amount if you want, and including other kinds of flexible ways to continue to maintain some buy orders that are dedicated to buying on dips while at the same time having had exercised lump sum and also incorporated buying on dips... so you are doing all three, even if you are a newbie to BTC investing.. but you are engaging in planning and also perhaps creating goals in terms of how much of a BTC allocation you would like to target, and of course, if you continue to learn about bitcoin as you go you can also reassess your plan as you go, so even though you have an initial plan for 6 months, you could extend it or you could add new terms to it based upon your learning along the way and maybe even some various things going on with your own finances and/or psychology (or even your assessment and reassessment of
your 9 factors).
but sometimes it can be important to follow some strict ways of investing rather than trying to overly strategize, especially when it comes to bitcoin.. and many times guys getting worked up about getting BTC at the lowest price that they can, but then at the same time they might end up being inadequately prepared for up.
I agree that being strict is more easy because you have to follow one straight path and you don't need to look for DIPs or any other variation in price. If you are following one strategy then you need to have faith in that strategy that it will suit you. Like if you are following DCA then you need to be sure that this will benefit you in the long run.
All this will be clear with time as you invest not only your money but your time and mind in Bitcoin.
You are likely never going to be 100% sure. You can invest, and surely the more that your portfolio goes into profits and the more cushion that you might have, then you might start to build greater and greater confidence that you are on the right path and you are doing the right thing. Even though you never were investing in the dark, you were always investing based on probabilities and some level of confidence that bitcoin is an asymmetric bet that is worth considering some kind of a reasonable allocation, whether that is in the ballpark of somewhere between 5% and 25% or if you choose some other allocation level based on your own assessment of your circumstances.