Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands
by
Gormicsta
on 10/02/2024, 06:44:16 UTC
You have provided concise explanations of the advantages and disadvantages of lump-sum investment vs DCA. While lump-sum investment can be dangerous in unfavorable market situations, it can also result in large profits in favorable circumstances. By spreading out your investments across time with DCA, you lower your chance of losing money in the event of a market collapse. However, if the market takes off, you might pass on the chance to make a significant profit

When determining which strategy is ideal for you, I believe it's critical to take your long-term objectives and risk tolerance into account. It's also important to remember that DCA may be more practical for people who lack a sizable sum of money to invest all at once.
I'd argue that DCA is the most practical way to invest for any kind of sum of money -- even if you're doing lumpsum now/today, you'll want to invest more in the future (who doesn't?). I don't think there's any case of any guy who says I'll invest $1 million in this asset today, we're done.

They're going to see it in a few years and grow it even more. Another lumpsum? Sure, then it essentially becomes DCA over time Smiley
I couldn't agree with you more there. True, a lot of people consider DCA to be a method for gradually investing small amounts of money, but it may also be applied to greater sums. Also, as you pointed out, even if you make a sizable first investment, you'll probably want to make more in the future, so it's really just another type of DCA. Actually, more than anything else, it's a mindset.

I think a common misperception about DCA is that it's only for those with little money. In actuality, though, DCA can be an effective strategy for everybody, regardless of their financial circumstances. As an illustration, suppose you have $100,000 to invest. You must choose between employing DCA and lump summing. You will immediately have $100,000 in the market if you invest it all at once, but you will also be taking on greater risk. You can lose a lot of money if the market dips soon after you make an investment.

However, you will be distributing your risk and investing your money gradually if you employ DCA and invest $10,000 every month for 10 months. Thus, even if the market dips, you will only lose a little portion of your investment. Additionally, DCAing will help you in the long run because you'll end up purchasing more Bitcoin during periods of low price and less during periods of high price. Therefore, if you employ DCA, you can ultimately wind up having more Bitcoin even if you're investing the same amount of money.

There does not need to be any kind of either or mindset, and you (Gormicsta) even mentioned earlier that guys should be attempting to align their strategy to their various goals.

And, so yeah, let's take that person with $100k.  What else do we know about him?  Maybe we can imagine that the $100k  is some kind of proportion of his overall investment portfolio, and he might be inclined towards front loading his BTC investment or maybe he just wants to get his investment out of the way so that he does not have to think about it. 

Well, if he had already told himself taht he is ONLY going in for $100k and that's it, then he has a very narrow way of thinking

We might imagine that he might want to take that size of investment into bitcoin because he wants to put 25% of his total investment portfolio into bitcoin.. so maybe his investment portfolio is $300k and if he puts $100k of bitcoin then BTC becomes 25% of his investment portfolio.

Personally I like the idea of front loading but also considering various ways to supplement any investment.  Maybe a guy like this has $100k plus he has a cashflow in which he could invest $500 per week into bitcoin for the next 26 weeks (so that would be an additional $13k)  The three categories that he has to consider for the $100k is DCA, buying on dips and lump sum.  Based on his $13k coming in in the next 6 months, he could divide into three parts which might be $33,333 in each part, or he could take some other approach.. to maybe include his cashflow into the calculation which would be $37,666 for each of the three parts ($113k / 3).  But yeah if he is a bit anxious to get in, then maybe  he puts something like $70k into front-loading by lump sum buying and the other two parts of buying on dip and DCA might therefore be $21.5k each ($43k/2). 

There are a lot of creative ways to calculate how much cash you have available now and account for your cashflow and also account for being prepared in case the BTC price goes down instead of up.. but sometimes people are so determined that the price is ulitmately gong up that they do not mind just front loading all of it and not preparing for down or sideways and their cashflow does not matter as much as it does to people who might rely more on cashflows rathe than money that they can move around from other investments. 




This proves but one thing, it shows that there's a lot of nuance involved in deciding how to choose one's investment approach. It's not as simple as choosing one approach over the other,  it's about balancing risk and reward, and finding the right mix for your personal situation. It's also very important to consider your long-term goals and how the different approaches might impact your ability to reach those goals.

The Lump Sum and DCA debate is often framed as an either/or proposition, but there are actually a lot of different options in between. It's possible to split the difference and do a combination of both strategies. For example, someone could make a large lump sum investment but then use DCA to gradually increase their position over time or they could alternatively do a smaller lump sum investment and then use DCA to add to their position if the price goes down. Because either ways one should really be prepared for everything when investing in Bitcoin, it's good to be optimistic about the price of Bitcoin going up, maybe due to your research or some circumstances that may propel it to go up, some people even make important financial decisions that would affect them just because someone else says so. Just being optimistic isn't enough, one have to also prepare for the worse too, prepare for an alternate measure, just incase things doesn't go as expected.

Some people might feel comfortable making decisions that concern their investment on their own and without involving any third party, but I Believe it's really important to consult a financial advisor who can help them weigh the different options and make a decision that's right for them. Because most investors don't even know what decision would impact their goals, some are following a strategy simply because others are doing the same thing. This is why it would be really helpful to seek the services of a financial advisor so one can start making the right decision towards choosing the right approach.