Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by AlcoHoDL (2)
[edited out]
One thing I feel is certain: this year and the next will be among the most entertaining, exciting, fun years since the beginning. 6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you.In terms of BTC, I am not sure if there is a big difference between $2 million and $10 million, especially if you might be close to reaching the lower one of the two based on the 200-week moving average rather than based on spot price, then the next level up (even though 5x greater) is not that far off... and for sure, if you had not noticed, I am not much of a fan for measuring entry-level or even higher up fuck-you status with BTC's spot price even though surely the high rises in BTC spot price, even if going up in a short period of time will have UPpity dragging effects upon the 200-week moving average (right now the 200WMA) is going up about $33 per day, and during the doldrums of our mid-2022 to October 2023 bearish period, there were times in which the 200-WMA was going up ONLY around $10-ish per day. Times are good, right now to be getting that ongoing pulling up.
Personally, I think that some of my sustainable withdrawal theories, including the tool powered by bitmover and even my outline of our anticipated timeline for reaching entry-level fuck you status in my chart, provide a pretty decent sense that even if we were to be able to employ a fairly conservative withdrawal of our BTC (such as in the ballpark of 4% annualized) once we reach actual entry-level fuck you status based on the 200-week moving average rather than spot price, then the value of our BTC holdings may well continue to grow in value at enough of a sustainable pace (going by the rate of the increase of the bottom - the 200-week moving average) that the value of our holdings may well end up going from $2 million to $10 million in a matter of a few years, merely by employing a conservative withdrawal strategy
So if you look at the tool, right now it takes around 64 BTC to put you into entry-level fuck you status, so of course, if we want to consider 5x of that amount as our cushion or whatever or further aspirational goal, the if we divide 64 by 5 then we get right around 13 BTC, which my fuck you status chart shows that it would take until right around mid 2031 before those guys with 13 BTC will be entering into entry-level fuck you status. .which would mean that the 64 BTC would be right around $10 million - except if you had been withdrawing around 0.1 to 0.2 BTC per month over the next 7 years that would add up to right around 12 BTC withdrawn (0.15 * 12 * 7), then our 64 BTC - 12 BTC = 52 BTC / 5 would be right around 10.4 BTC, which my fuck you status chart shows 2032 for that.. so add another year... and yet the point is that with decent management of the stash, the stash is likely to continue to grow in value. if you are already in entry-level fuck you status based on the 200-week moving average rather than based on spot price.. and because if you are going by spot price then 20 BTC is not as much of a cushion to work with.. but if you were to have double that, then even if you are not quite yet at the current 64 BTC that is necessary, then if you had 40BTC, you are getting a lot closer.. yet I am not much of a fan of the idea of pulling the fuck you lever too early, even though it is my own theory that if you keep your value in BTC and if you are measuring your value from the 200-week moving average, you are going to be in way better shape in terms of dealing with reality rather than going by spot price, since I have some concerns about anyone withdrawing too much too soon..
In other words, I hate to be a party poop like Biodom, but personally, I believe that it is not such a great idea to cheat in your valuation of your closeness to entry-level fuck you status by using BTC spot price and then to end up overly withdrawing BTC prior to being place to be truly ready, because where are you going to put BTC that would be better than keeping it in BTC.. because we are not going to work with any presumption that if we sell BTC that we will be able to buy it back, are we? For me, I imagine any BTC that I sell is NOT going to have any expectation of being able to buy it back, even if sometimes we know that being able to buy it back does end up playing out, especially if the BTC price shoots up more rapidly than buying support can keep up..
$100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?
I am a party poop. I agree that they are unpredictable certainties, but how much coin you going to sell at those prices.. if you only have 20 coin in the case of BTC price reaching $100k or if you ONLY have 2 BTC in the case of BTC reaching $1 million.. So maybe by the time BTC reaches $100k, then maybe ONLY around 60 BTC will be needed to be at entry-level fuck you status, which is presuming that BTC price going up to $100k in the next 2-4-ish months would end up dragging the 200-WMA from its current $31k level and up to $33.5k-ish.. so then at that point, you ONLY need 60 BTC rather than 64 BTC to be at entry-level fuck you status, and sure maybe if BTC prices went up to $1 million quickly, then it is not going to draw the 200-week moving average up to its level but it is still going to drag the 200-WMA up a lot and fast. but the BTC price has to stay up somewhat for a while for eh 200-week moving average to double or some other extreme that might be considered that might cause the current 64 BTC needed to go down to 32 BTC needed..
Whatever you are doing AlcoHoDL, (for your own good, as far as I can assess it from a distance.. to the extent that we are not giving financial advice or second-guessing the judgement of others) I hope that you are not getting too overly reliant on BTC spot prices to determine what to do and how to treat your BTC holdings.
[edited out]
I continue to study and follow the things written here, this topic and reading the things written here is a A true lesson for those seeking knowledge.Well hopefully it all works out for you.
Many of us here consider a kind of importance of getting through a whole cycle, and probably that would include a lot of just continuing to buy, yet of course, ONLY you are in a position in which you are going to be able to assess the extent that you might have enough BTC and if you might be in a position to start to transition out of a more strict BTC accumulation stage and to perhaps start to get into more of maintenance stage.
There is a lot of power in compounding value, which was part of a theme of a discussion that I was posting about in another thread, and here is a relevant part of that discussion:
.........So, let's look at the historical numbers and the timeline from 2015 to present again.
1) 0) $250 (2015) 1X
2) 1) $500 (2015-2016) 2X
3) 2) $1,000 (2016-2017) 2X * 2 = 4X
4) 3) $2,000 (2017) 4X * 2 = 8X
5) 4) $4,000 (2017-2020) 8X * 2 = 16X
6) 5) $8,000 (2017-2020) 16X * 2 = 32X
7) 6) $16,000 (2017-2022) 32X * 2 = 64X
8 ) 7) $32,000 (2021-2023?) 64X * 2 = 128X
9) 8 ) $64,000 (2021-?) 128X * 2 = 256X
10) 9) $128,000 (?) 256X * 2 = 512X
You can likely see that if you are shaving off profits at the earlier stages, then you are going to eat into the compounding (and/or exponential) component in regards to how your value would have had grown through that period of time.
So in this particular factual example the guys who bought in 2015 and had a base of $250 per BTC and who did not sell any of their BTC, they would have had experienced 8 doublings that would have brought their holdings up to 256x for a short period of time during the period that BTC was priced at more than $64k, and so then their amount of value would have come back down to 6 doublings when the BTC price dropped back down to around $16k (which would have been around 64x) and then now they are currently in the supra 7 doublings that would have been 128x when the BTC prices were at $32k, and they will be back to 256x once (or if) the BTC price gets back to supra $64k, and then if the BTC price goes above $128k, then they will get into the supra 512x territory..
So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.
Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.
You can likely see that if you are shaving off profits at the earlier stages, then you are going to eat into the compounding (and/or exponential) component in regards to how your value would have had grown through that period of time.
So in this particular factual example the guys who bought in 2015 and had a base of $250 per BTC and who did not sell any of their BTC, they would have had experienced 8 doublings that would have brought their holdings up to 256x for a short period of time during the period that BTC was priced at more than $64k, and so then their amount of value would have come back down to 6 doublings when the BTC price dropped back down to around $16k (which would have been around 64x) and then now they are currently in the supra 7 doublings that would have been 128x when the BTC prices were at $32k, and they will be back to 256x once (or if) the BTC price gets back to supra $64k, and then if the BTC price goes above $128k, then they will get into the supra 512x territory..
So each doubling now has much much greater magnifying effects as compared to the kind of smaller magnifying effects that would have had been felt in the first few of doublings.. so the power of the doublings tend to come later down the line, so long as the asset continues to go up in value and to have a kind of persistent effect.. .. something like a Lindy effect that suggest that the longer that something non-perishable (like an idea or a technology) is in existence and maintaining itself the more likely it is going to continue to be in existence.
Of course, the bitcoin maximalist argument would assert that the Lindy effect applies to bitcoin more than it does to various shitcoins, but the theoretical idea of the Lindy effect is not completely absent from various shitcoins, even if some of the ideas and/or innovations of shitcoins (if they come up with any that involve anything worthwhile besides scamming people) may well have decently good chances to get absorbed into bitcoin.
I dunno if it’s just me but seeing some the bullish new morph a bit over the last week or so, general topic remains the same but just slight tweaks across the different sources.
- Investor funds have to wait 30,60 or 90 days before investing in etf’s
- Etf finding it harder to buy otc at x price(last story was just under 100k from large holders)
Is this normal, like I notice it because i read things daily. Are these half truths aimed at bringing in the retail investors for example?
I wasn’t here for the start of the last bull/pre-halving. Is this something I should just get used to from now on?
Onwards and upwards,
Greyhats
- Investor funds have to wait 30,60 or 90 days before investing in etf’s
- Etf finding it harder to buy otc at x price(last story was just under 100k from large holders)
Is this normal, like I notice it because i read things daily. Are these half truths aimed at bringing in the retail investors for example?
I wasn’t here for the start of the last bull/pre-halving. Is this something I should just get used to from now on?
Onwards and upwards,
Greyhats
Who knows what to make of it or if you should act more bulllish because of that information, but it is extremely bullish.. and it may well even be true.. not just a pumpening attempt.
I am pretty sure that the investor funds (The RIAs - Registered investment advisors) can still put people into ETFs, but they cannot solicit for 90 days.. .. something like that.. but who cares.. whether there is a pump of everyone else, and then when the 90 days run out around the halvening then maybe there will be a dump, but in the meantime, maybe prices shoot up to $100k before dumping back to $70k.. I am not going to claim to know shit, except that my own practice is to always attempt to prepare for either direction (and both directions) simultaneously, so the price is always coming to me rather than my chasing the price, but still sometimes if any of us might not have enough BTC in order to frontrun some of the BIGGER players, it might not hurt to buy a bit extra, just in case.. . but yeah, maybe you already did that and you don't have any money left.. what you going to do start dipping into your emergency fund and leveraging your house.. I personally don't tend to play like that, but each person has some things that he might be able to do in order to get more BTC price exposure..