If anyone is giving advice to newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) to wait rather than getting the fuck started, then that would not be good advice.  That would likely be bad advice, even though people can do whatever they like in terms of their own level of preparedness for UPpity that may or may not happen. 

In other words, you are not prepared for UPpity at all if you either do not have any coins or if you are low on coins (by definition if you are a low coiner you are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for up).  The most practical way to prepare for UP is by having some coins.. even though there could be some other ways that might be less efficient to get some (or perhaps a sufficient/adequate) BTC price exposure to be prepared for up.


Where are you presuming bitcoin to be right now?  Bull or bear? and which part? and how do you know?


There are no guarantees and yeah you cannot time the market, so part of the reason to get started right away, even though you cannot really know if the BTC price might go up or down from the specific BTC price point in which you get started.  If you think that you have some theories about price direction, you could adjust the amount of your invested amount at your entrance point and you can attempt to assess your level of preparedness for either UP or DOWN based on your own circumstances.. and surely, it is important to be prepared for both UP and for DOWN, but if you have no coins, you are only preparing for UP, which surely would be problematic and not advisable, even though people are free to do whatever they like (including sitting around like a dummy), even if it ends up being wrong.


Waiting for down that might not happen is not a demonstration of patience, it is demonstration of dumbness.

 


That is true.  But it might not, too. It might go up and never come back to these prices ever again. Which is more likely and are you prepared for either?  Hopefully you are prepared for either rather than just waiting for one side and that side may well not end up happening.


4-10 years or longer might be a good idea for anyone just getting started... so yeah, shorter terms might just be gambling, even though if you have an investment timeline of less than 4 years, then maybe you could just adjust your position size downwardly in order to account for your being a trader rather than an investor.


Sure.. not everyone is an investor.... so those kinds of situations are going to have a lot of variables.  A part of the reason that it is easier to talk about investment theses in bitcoin is to understand bitcoin in that sense, even though surely you are correct that there are a variety of short term use cases, and there are also some people who are good at trading, but those kinds of people should be able to figure out their shit themselves.. or maybe go to threads that talk about those kinds of topics..


I appreciate any comments, feedback and/or criticisms of those hypos.. so yeah, thanks for looking through them.

Yesterday when I went back to them, I was having a little bit of difficulty remembering why I had created them in the first place, and I had thought that they had some other information in them, so I was a bit frustrated when I needed to add a summary regarding the results of each of the categories. 

I believe that my initial idea in creating the categories in the way that I did was because once the frameworks were established, then guys should be able to extrapolate other kinds of results.. but the main points were being made that involve showing how various investment approaches would vary over time, and of course, I wanted to be able to mostly emphasize ongoing DCA into each of the models because historically it has remained an important constant in bitcoin that can be measured in terms of its historical results, and I still believe that historical results does not guarantee future results, even though we can see through the various hypotheticals where guys would currently be based on varying timelines and perhaps whether they might have had some abilities to lump sum invest and/or DCA.. and most people should be able to employ some version of DCA as long as they have some discretionary/disposable income.

There surely are going to be some guys who would have had been able to beat strict variations of DCA, even within the timelines of the given hypotheticals, and so I don't have any problems with that, but I do have some problems with guys making arguments that proclaim some kind of generally applicable system that involves suggestions that they are able to beat DCA.. or they have it all figured out when to buy and when not to buy, and to suggest that newbie normies should follow such systems that they are likely not even able to articulate with any kind of clarity, and likely more than 90% of people are not even capable of developing some kind of a BTC trading system that would match or beat some variation of ongoing consistent buying that involves DCA, especially over longer periods of time such as when we are getting into 5-10 year timelines.

Sure there are ways to trade and even be profitable and even to be able to consistently beat the market or to beat some kind of a strict DCA approach, but those tend to be both specialized people and also not applicable to around 90% of the population who might not have time and/or abilities to engage in such tactics or to learn such tactics.