Ninjastic
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When will Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy sell BTC?
by
Vincom
on 20/02/2024, 01:06:11 UTC
⭐ Merited by NotATether (5)
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has become a prominent player in the Bitcoin market through its aggressive accumulation strategy. Their recent purchase of 850 BTC in January 2024 signals continued confidence in Bitcoin's potential[1], especially considering their reported $4 billion profit on previous investments[2]. This stands in stark contrast to mid-2022, when the company faced criticism for incurring significant losses[3].

Saylor claims MicroStrategy will never sell their Bitcoin[4], positioning them as unwavering "diamond hands". However, as a publicly traded company with profit-seeking shareholders like Capital International Investors, Vanguard, and Blackrock[5], the pressure to capitalize on significant price increases cannot be ignored.

While missing out on 2021's peak proved costly, MicroStrategy's MSTR stock price has surged nearly 500% since their initial Bitcoin investment in July 2020[6]. However, some argue that failing to take profits during bull runs contradicts optimal investment strategies.

While Saylor's personal belief in Bitcoin's future might be genuine, shareholder pressure could compel MicroStrategy to reconsider its stance if Bitcoin reaches significant highs, like the projected $160,000 in 2025, followed by signs of a downward trend. Considering the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, with the next peak expected in 2025, it wouldn't be surprising to see MicroStrategy potentially offload some of its Bitcoin holdings then.

MicroStrategy's significant holdings and regular Bitcoin purchases have generated considerable interest in the cryptocurrency market. If the company decides to sell its BTC in 2025, it could trigger various market reactions:

  • Potential Positive Impacts: MicroStrategy's monthly disclosures regarding BTC purchases and sales offer valuable insights into their perspective on the market, potentially influencing investor sentiment. Selling alongside a major player like MicroStrategy could present an opportunity for some investors to align their own investment decisions.
  • Potential Negative Impacts: A large-scale BTC sell-off by MicroStrategy could trigger significant fear and panic selling, leading to a sharp decline in the price. If a prominent advocate like MicroStrategy loses faith in Bitcoin, it could erode investor confidence and lead to a sustained price drop, potentially pushing the price below $60,000 by 2026.

While Bitcoin's price fluctuations are cyclical, and Saylor and MicroStrategy acknowledged this, I would be surprised if they held onto their BTC during the anticipated crypto winter of 2026-2027.

I would like to know your opinion on this issue:
  • What are your thoughts on the possibility of Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin during the current bull cycle's distribution phase?
  • If such a sale were to occur, how do you anticipate it affecting the price of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market?
  • Do you consider the actions of individual entities, such as MicroStrategy, when making investment decisions?
References:
[1] MicroStrategy acquired 850 bitcoin for $37.2 million in January
[2] Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Bitcoin Bet Tops $4B in Profit
[3] MicroStrategy’s Losses on Its Bitcoin Bet Near $1 Billion
[4] Michael Saylor Suggests MicroStrategy Will Never Sell Its Bitcoin
[5] MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR): Holders
[6] MicroStrategy becomes first listed company to buy bitcoin as part of its capital allocation strategy