^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):

FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT).

If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you need about 50 BTC to sell in order achieve FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for).
Adjust the 50btc  to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin only fhu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" about 81 btc right now).

Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
The spot is where you will be selling at if you'll need to cash out.