It is not meaningless.  It is a way to measure the bottom, so that you may well be able to attempt to make plans about it.

Yes, you can also use BTC spot price, yet do we need to argue about how crazy it fluctuates?

In the end, there are likely a variety of ways to establish a cushion, and if you want to put your default entry-level fuck you status at a higher level, then that might be your way of dealing with such volatility, to the extent that you might be keeping most of your value in BTC rather than cashing out when you reach such perceived status.


I already have a system to deal with it, and so there is an expectation that BTC prices will generally average above the 200 WMA by around 25% or more, and so yeah every once in a while the BTC price goes below the 200-WMA, but there are still presumptions about that not holdings.. unless something changes, and the incredibly good news has already happened so the BTC price is already expected to go up to $100k, it is just a matter of when rather than placing much if any weight on a timeline.. especially a short timeline...

so yeah, if I don't fight too much with your hypothetical it would be a bit surprising to go up 2x in one day, but not totally outside of expectations and/or BTC historical happenings.. and sometimes going a bit beyond extreme.. and even getting 3.5x in a few months could end up happening, so that takes BTC prices to right around $180k... and I am not even sure if that is outside of possibilities, even though it would likely be quite shocking and cause some extra reactions, but guys like me already have some preparations for those kinds of scenarios.. sure admittedly my sell orders currently ONLY go up to $150k, but I would be able to fairly easily place additional sell orders between $150k and $500k.

Same with going down to $20k, I have buy orders going down to $20k, but I would probably get nervious if the BTC price got down to $30k within a few hours, and I would probably pull my buy orders between $20k and $30k, even though I am ready to let them ride down to $30k without making any adjustments.

So surely there could be a lot of depression if the BTC price goes down and refuses to come back up or goes to zero, and those are not non-zero possibilities, but they are pretty damned close to zero. and so we likely are going to be making our base case plans around more likely scenarios rather than making them around outlier scenarios... so if something is expected to have 1% or 2% odds, then we plan 1% to 2% for those things to happen, and yeah, we are not always going to be right, and there are ways to plan for outside scenarios while still mostly be preparing for the more likely base case scenarios.. and so there are some ways to hedge bets, if you had not realized that.


I don't see what purpose your advice is having here?   except maybe an attempt to patronize... since it seems that you should sufficiently understand why a lagging indicator might be preferable  to spot price when it comes to long term investing, but instead you seem to be wanting to argue for the mere sake of it... you can look at both spot price and various kinds of moving averages at the same time, and you can compare those moving averages, and my own system of sustainable withdraw looks at both spot price and 200-WMA in order to make various kinds of assessments for sustainable withdrawal, and any one who is willing to use such tool is free to incorporate those kinds of principles, and it is just a tool that can be considered as an option.. and it might be supplemented by raking tools and other tools, so everyone is responsible for their own valuation ideas and how to act upon such ideas in regards to managing their BTC holdings.