The chance is still very big for Bayern but if you look at the last record in the Champions League and their domestic competition that is currently being followed there is honestly a doubt for me they will win easily in the second leg later.
In terms of probability, they are still one of the clubs that can be used as candidates for champions until now but on the other hand the performance carried out in the current Tuchel era is still very lacking.
In the first leg apart from losing Upamecano we certainly know that Bayern's finishing in this match was not very good. there were around 17 chances that Bayern managed to create but none of the 17 chances created were on target which made us realize that the quality of Bayern's attack this season is very bad.
They can still win, it's just that it clearly won't be easy because Lazio are also not an arbitrary club even though they still lose in terms of probability of comparison with Bayern.
I think Bayern played well against Lazio but they lacked finishing and fell victim to a big mistake by the defence. I think they will win differently in the next game and they will take it in Bayern style, otherwise Tuchel will be shown the door. Bayern's defence is very heavy and they don't know how to pass. They pass very slowly. If the second goal had come, maybe Lazio could have eliminated Bayern, but Bayern will finish the job in the second leg. Otherwise there will be huge consequences.
In the match against Lazio it was actually not lacking but indeed Bayern's finishing was very poor. 17 shots and 0 on target is really bad because even though there are so many opportunities they have and with the dominance of the match they do in fact they are still very bad at finishing even though they play at full strength.
Losing Upamecano was also one of the factors that made Bayern's performance in the last 20 minutes regress slightly when compared to the first half and the beginning of the second half.
Now of course there is a moral burden for Bayern. They have to catch up with the Aggregate but on the other hand they also have a considerable advantage because they play at home and with the strength that is actually still above Lazio but if in the end the same performance is shown in the first leg and they cannot get On target then I do not guarantee they will qualify and make Tuchel's position will be even hotter because the possibility of him staying as coach at Bayern is getting smaller.