Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
This day in Bitcoin price history:
April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10 (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20 (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00 (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)
April 24th, 2011 : 1BTC = $1.7
April 24th, 2012 : 1BTC = $5.10 (+300% from 2011)
April 24th, 2013 : 1BTC = $154.20 (+3024% from 2012, +9070% from 2011)
April 24th, 2014 : 1BTC = $485.00 (+314% from 2013, +9510% from 2012, +28529% from 2011)
Note that the percent changes (not increases) from year to year were
2011 -> 2012 300%
2012 -> 2013 3024%
2013 -> 2015 314%
Neither constant, not uniformly increasing.
What will be the percent change 2014 -> 2015?
The simplest formula that will fit the three data points above is a parabola. Working in log scale, this is what I get:
The red dots are actual BTC prices in USD on Apr/24 of each year, as per above.
The first three green dots are the actual percent change from each price to the next, as per above.
The green line is the quadratic A*y^2 + B*y + C that passes through those three points.
According to this quadratic, the percentage price change 2014 -> 2015 (fourth green point) will be 0.34%.
That is, the BTC price on Apr/24 2015 will be 485.00 * 0.0034 = 1.64 USD.
(Before jumping off the window, check what Mark Twain had to say about extrapolation.
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