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JJG at #661629

That was about as comprehensive a reply I have ever received for anything I have ever written in my life (inc. the Spanish 4 paper I wrote in high school that Miss Breiner raked me over the coals on...).

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I have nothing against spreadsheets, but they're not my style re BTC buying and selling.  Sure, they can provide plausible number scenarios, but I just use a calculator and notes on paper.  Just as a by-the-by, most of my formal planning is done re the big things (heirs).

Yes, nicely perceived that my plan is basically in my head, leaving open the possibilities of course corrections.  One thing I have learned: we are all different!  Also very perceptive of you to offer up the observation that it, my buying and selling tactics, might be (at least in part) in my subconscious...  What are you, some kinda combat psychologist?

When it comes to selling, both in 2017 and 2021 I sold some past the ATHs. I would attribute A LOT of luck to this process of selling roughly the same amounts before and after the peaks.  I was very lucky to have sold off a sliver on the very day of THE ATH, but not at the tippy-top peak of that day. 


Re the whole topic of "not having made enough (exact optimal amount perhaps better expressed???) money" in BTC and/or retained enough to have better "alpha", well, yeah, had I had more perfect vision of the future, sure I would have bought more here, sold less there...  [I noted you explicitly made the same point]  But who can do that optimally all the time?  Pas de moi.  I made enough to really have made me very happy re 2021, that was a nice amount, even if it really didn't change anything fundamental re my family finances.  So, no condo in Dubai, at least yet...


You made some interesting other points that I have not run into before:

-- Optionality, a concept I have run into before, but very valid re BTC gains, even for small amounts invested (1% - 2%).  Right now, I/we (I gave my grandsons some) we are running at some 3% of net wealth in BTC.  I'd have to check my numbers, but something on the order of 3%, maybe a bit more, was what I held just before my selling in 2021.  I want to think more about your comments on this.

-- That was an interesting observation as well re increasing our %-share as the BTC network strengthens, and we see more new & bigger entrants.  This promises to be fascinating, I guess in the months and years to come.  5% - 25% is more than I want to devote, though, as I am not 100% convinced that BTC is going to work out as most (inc. me) think.

-- I also like your idea (new to me) of studying and using the 200 day moving average in your thinking.  Even if it's just for perspective.  I would like to see how the pretty clear patterns of BTC 4-year cycle daily pricing (to date anyway) fit in with the moving average... 

-- I also remember from 2021 that I started off my selling-by-slice by selling slices that, at first, were perhaps too large...  Which of course meant that my smaller, later slices were less lucrative at the higher prices.  This relates to your comment about running out too soon of BTC to sell should the price run up to VERY HIGH LEVELS (say, over $150,000).  I will certainly keep that in mind not to sell off much of my BTC for too low.


Excellent thought provoking comments, thank you!