AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.
50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ?
Yes. What will be the price on Nov 17, 2014, at 17:23:11 UTC? The log-Brownian model say that it will be more than 487.15 USD with 50% probability, less than that with 50% probability. (OK, there is some probability that it will be EXACTLY 487.15 USD,but it is very small.)
"The log brownian model", huh? As in, Markov property all the way... And here I was thinking you would have finally come to embrace TA.
This is a bit off-topic, but will you stick around when price pulls up again?
I'm not even being sarcastic or anything, I really just genuinely wonder. I mean, I'm pretty bearish right now, but I have very little doubt it'll turn around eventually.
And I'd actually be interested to see what your posts will look like once we're at that point.