Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 5 from 3 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 09/03/2024, 19:35:29 UTC
⭐ Merited by fillippone (3) ,vapourminer (1) ,UnDerDoG81 (1)
Hi all, long time no log. I've missed you all (except for the idiots).

I had a life-changing BTC theft, I am a  security-oriented kinduva guy. It's a long story, plz don't ask. Three-letter-agencies are involved.

I am also old, quit my job, etc.

The good part? I paid off 10 years of debt with BTC, fixed up my old house, bought a cool 2005 truck. The best part? I gave a $100 paper wallet to a family member. He reported that it was now $3k.

EDIT: I am trying to catch up on two years of posts. Good Stuff, all around!

I am not going to ask, but there are a lot of things in life that suck.  I had a BTC theft that was quite significant in size too, but luckily I was able to retain most of my then stash... so it did not go to a level of losing all of it.. and so I had a period in which I did not want to say anything about the matter, and I still tend to be a bit judicious in some of my revealing of any details - even though it is worth noting that for me, I had come to realize (and recalculate) that I did not need as many BTC as I had accumulated, so there was a path forward in order to reconsider matters, and also to fix a lot of the vulnerable areas.. and mine was largely related to a sims attack and it had several components that were kind of crazy in terms of how sophisticated the attack seemed to be and then even mistakes that I made too... and a few areas in which I just got lucky.. in terms of little quirks that caused the loss to be less than it could have had been.

Hopefully you either were able to retain some coins in order to have a base upon which to rebuild, even if it might not be as much.. or you are ready, willing and able to start to rebuild from scratch.. especially since you already know the value of having coinz.. yet I know that some folks could become disgruntled with some of these kinds of matters, especially if there is something like government involvement or some various kinds of injustices that were involved that might not make a whole hell of a lot of sense.

One time in around 2017 or 2018, I had a person file a small court claim against me that was truly trivial, stupid and the person was truly in the wrong - but feeling self-justified to file a claim for a good/service in the carrying out of a contract, yet in the end I ended up having to pay a judgement for that and it was a pretty small amount, but something that the person truly did not deserve... and so maybe that judgement plus other various complications in running a business and sometimes having various disputes with customers and also sometimes with government agencies wanting to sometimes get extra cuts that seem to be not warranted, and other kinds of problems of people trying to rob your business in various ways - including physical break-ins.. I decided that I was putting way too much time and efforts into something that was not worth the headache.. including that it was costing money and tying up capital.. ... so I guess I am just trying to point out various injustices.. that can sometimes contribute towards of web of considerations and reconsiderations in order to consider another possible road forward.. and yeah, hopefully, bitcoin remains part of your way forward and even resuming accumulation if that might be part of the current better way forward.

As someone who never sold or took profits since the purchase in 2013, what yall think of the idea to sell 1% at every 10k+? Starting now at 69k and next would be 79k and so on. I don’t need the money thank god. But even though I believe in Bitcoin, I really would like to have something left if ever some black swan event happens, western governments ban cashing Bitcoin out, a hack of the network or whatever. Even though I don’t need the money, if any black swan event occurs, I would love to keep my lifestyle as it is right now. Retired. Traveling. Spending about 2k a month for everything including rent, food, travel costs etc.

What do the long term investors here do? Still 100% in Bitcoin (I am) and forever until the last day?

Edit: The next question is, I would not want to hold fiat on my
Bank account. But I also don’t want stable coins. I don’t want to hold anything the government can take from me.

Edit2: I don’t trust Blackrock and all the others. I find these ETFs fishy. And they COULD have a plan to destroy Bitcoin. That’s why this question.

All of that about selling on the way up seems reasonable, but I don't know how you sell and then not end up with some kind of vulnerability in terms of how you are going to keep your money, unless you find someone who will give you physical cash or something similar for your BTC sales.

[edited out]
That sounds like a plan. I was also thinking to sell 10% maximum. Question is, would you keep that in USDT?

That is true.. USDT could be possible.. so then are you keeping it on exchanges or in some wallet.  You can store USDT on Aqua wallet, if you don't want to keep that value on exchanges.

Yeah I am in Germany. Holding for 10+ years. After 1 year of holding its tax free (they wanna change this). But I don’t know how it is when I convert bitcoin into USDT and then later in euro if I wanna cash out fiat. Or buy back.

So I set a sell order at 69k. Doesn’t feel right. But at some point you have to let your kids go.
Start selling around €200k next year not below €150k.

That seems to be fighting with the hypothetical to go that extreme.  So for example, if someone is starting to feel like he can start shaving some off without putting much if any of a burden on his stash, then I don't see any problems with that.. even though you could be correct that getting over €150k is easy peasy... in other words, I don't see any reasons to let the perfect become the enemy of the good... in other words good enough to start selling, but surely the person who is doing the selling has to be able to live with the consequences that he might have had been able to get more if he had waited.. but I surely am not a waiting kind of guy since I think that we can set buy and/or sell orders in such way that the price is coming to us. and so we already planned what we were going to do once the price gets to the spot that we had already set.. which ends up being incrementalist and likely less gambling than if the numbers are set at such heights that may well not end up getting met.

@UnDerDoG81 can also play around with his numbers by plugging them into fillippone's Google spreadsheet that is based on a model that I had presented in this post.