[reasonable argument why price analysis based on data from years ago cannot give meaningful signals for today]
You would think that, I guess. But the most successful traders would disagree with that, and prove you wrong.
How many n-sigma events do you accept before you start questioning your theory? That's the question you need to ask yourself.
[I'm alluding to the Buffet thing in case that wasn't clear]You surely did not pay attention, but aftter the end-of-March crash I predicted that the price would reboud to the previous levels (~550 USD) if the Caixin article turned out to be false. I may even have been the most bullish bull at the time.
That's not what I mean by "price picking up again". I meant how will you react if you're around for the next bubble cycle that takes us to a new all time high.
Guess we'll find out if you're still around then.