Your concluding part is not related to what you narrated in any way, you never added the money you are betting the game with, nor did you talk about the risk level you take by betting it. However, a gambler can bet the way they want and what you think you do not know might be well-known to you. Though all are about gambling but gambling could still be ignorantly analysed well. You have talked about it already, you may not know the teams playing from Adams but when you are watching them live, your observations and instincts could tell you a whole lot about what will happen and that is enough for you to speculate rightly.

Although all is still about gambling but in the process of watching it live, you can make an informed decision simply due to your instinct and still win the match easily. There are many ways gamblers speculate and we can't remove the one you talked about from it. But for me, I bet with the team(s) I am sure about and I use past records in all ramifications to conclude on the betting to be surer on what to do.