Despite their inconsistent home performance this season, I think Barcelona will win. Atletico played a tough encounter against Inter Milan, so Champions League weariness may play a role. A penalty shootout must have been physically and emotionally taxing. Some might think a tie is likely, but Barcelona's record versus Atletico gives me more confidence in a win
You highlighted Athletic Bilbao's match against Real Madrid, which is crucial. Atletico must start strong to stay in the top four. I think the pressure may hurt them. Barcelona can manage the pressure, and Atletico's tiredness may lead to a home triumph. Barcelona usually wins when it counts, but it will be close
Bilbao might be a tough opponent for Real Madrid, but overall Real Madrid is still the favorite because in terms of strength they are a little better and they will also be playing at home so this is a little advantageous for Real Madrid.
Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid's match against Barcelona will of course be a fierce match, the two teams are very balanced in terms of strength, apart from Atletico who have been inconsistent throughout this season, but they cannot be underestimated, their victory over Inter Milan in the UCL made the team's mentality and confidence increased rapidly.