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I don't think Arsenal becomes the favorite here. Although they are playing well in EPL, it can't guarantee anything for the match in UCL.
You can see Arsenal very difficult to qualify against Porto. Arsenal needs to play until penalty shootout. This indicated that Arsenal isn't so strong, the position in the EPL can't describe how strong Arsenal in UCL. If Arsenal is quite strong, they must be easy to beat Porto.
It is different with Bayern Munich. They looked quite good in Leg 2 against Lazio. Bayern Munich have no problem to defeat Lazio with 3 goals. If they were unable to win in Leg 1 against Lazio, I think it can be the impact of Red Card got by Upamecano. Well, as long as Bayern Munich can play with their main lineup, I'm sure Bayern Munich can beat Arsenal. It is not only about the record, but Bayern Munich squad quality also seems better over Arsenal.
I agree with you, kawetsriyanto. Arsenal are not favorites to progress to the semi-finals against Bayern Munich even though their performances in their respective domestic leagues are very different. The thing that might differentiate between the two in the Champions League is experience, Arsenal is not a team with much experience in the Champions League compared to Bayern Munich.
I basically don't expect Arsenal to qualify for the semi-finals this season by beating Bayern Munich, but this could happen if Arteta can maximize the potential of his team. The match will be very close and definitely worth looking forward to, but I would probably think that both have a 50:50 chance of making the semifinals.
Knowing the present performance of Arsenal, we can’t conclude that they are not going to the semi-finals, but seeing the opponents that have more experience than them, the main point here is the performance. We know Bayern Munich won’t give them that chance since they have already given up in the Bundesliga, which they will also like to move down to the semifinals, but Arsenal, on the other hand, has displayed some strong and unimaginable performances lately that will make many believe that surely they can also make it to the semifinals if care is not taken.
So comparing their past performance with Porto or thinking about their performance in the Premier League will somehow not be accepted because, if not for the experience that Arsenal don’t have that much, Bayern Munich will not even think of giving them a hot one, but the game is still home and away, so I think the first leg will be drawn and the away qualifier will be chosen in the second leg, but I have a slight hope in Arsenal.