This is pretty close to my expectations. Though your high sides over time get far higher cuz I think no way 3x is ever happening again, unlikely even this cycle.

And yes, reasonable expectations people. Don't listen to the idiots saying Bitcoin is going to a million next year or this decade.

I think the four year market cycle may fade away before price hits a million, but assuming it doesn't this is what I expect for the peaks of each 4 year cycle:

2024/25: ~$150k
2028/29: $250k-$350k
2032/33: $450k-$600k
2036/37: $800k-$1.0m
2040/41: $1.2m-$1.5m

So I'm thinking 2040 we'll see $1 million get hit, but a possibility of it happening in 2036 or 2037. I'm trying to take a realistic conservative view.

But there are definitely bullish possibilities that could happen over the next dozen years that could lead to the prices higher up in franky's ranges, I just don't think it is necessarily likely as I think such adoption will take longer. But those would be, (1) if several large nations start adding bitcoin to their reserves during the next decade, or (2) if it becomes the norm for corporations to hold bitcoin so we see those big trillion dollar tech companies buying up tens of billions of dollar of bitcoin each in addition to hundreds of other large corporations buying up collectively perhaps another hundred billion dollars of bitcoin, or (3) if the rampant misinformation fades so that the average person stops either not knowing what bitcoin is or thinks its something bad and bitcoin becomes normalized to the general public during that time period and we see hundreds of millions of people buying up some like say a couple thousand dollars worth of bitcoin each for long term savings/retirement. If any of these three things happen (a nation bitcoin race, a corporate bitcoin race, or just normalization of the general public) then I could definitely see it passing $1m as soon as 2036.