Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Recession soon?
by
cryptosize
on 16/03/2024, 17:17:42 UTC
We're now just waiting for US to announce it but it seems they're tough and won't be reporting anything like that.

Nobody is waiting for that because the US economy is still growing by a large margin:
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Quote
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “second” estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

I know it's a thing that has become like the daily prayer for some to see the USA in trouble but right now you couldn't be further from the truth. And in a short time all those fears about recessions will turn to be just like the other crises that never materialized apart from the media, the food crisis, the energy crisis and so on!

Wait, isn't recession already going on? We have money but its not enough now. Everything is so expensive.

Pricing increasing is not a recession, if you would go by the price indicator alone right now a deflation would be far more likely to trigger a recession.
Things are expensive because there is demand for them even at those prices, otherwise, you would see all those markets crashing down like the real estate did a decade ago, but there are no signs of that if you exclude all the fearmongering that has been around for a decade also.
Honest question:

How long do you expect the US economy and the USD to be dominant?

Historical patterns indicate the USD is already a grandpa waiting to be phased out vs BTC being a baby:





According to Davos it seems that China will be No1 (double GDP) by 2030:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/india-will-overtake-the-us-economy-by-2030/

Of course it won't be easy, they'll have to capture Taiwan (TSMC) first to become the leaders of Digital Transformation/AI revolution...

I expect FED to start a massive "green" QE in late 2024/early 2025 (like they did for COVID back in 2020-2021).

ECB has shown some signs they're "concerned" about climate change:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/html/why_climate_change_matters.en.html

Add on top of that the halving effect, the ETF demand for BTC and we're in for a treat. Maybe the biggest bull run ever, possibly even bigger than 2013...