Blindly following someone else's predictions, regardless of their supposed expertise, is a recipe for disappointment.  Imagine a football fan following a "tipster's" prediction without analyzing the teams or the game's context.  It's a gamble within a gamble, stacking the odds against you.

The changing referee situation you mentioned perfectly illustrates the inherent uncertainties in sports betting.  Even seemingly minor factors, like a last-minute change in officiating, can disrupt the most meticulous predictions.  It's like a chess game – one unexpected move can alter the entire course of the competition.

True success in gambling, whether sports or otherwise, lies in independent analysis.  Researching teams, players, and historical trends allows you to make informed decisions.  While considering other perspectives can be helpful, the final call should be yours, based on your own analysis.