I decided to start these forum quiz-series, where I'll be asking questions of educational character, to improve the average user's knowledge around Bitcoin. The questions will mostly be technical and historical. To create an incentive, I will generously merit the first person who replies with the correct answer. If that is not good enough incentive, I'll create a leaderboard!

• Your answer needs to be explanatory. Not just a yes-no or a single number.
• If nobody finds the answer until the cut-off date, I will submit it.
• Have fun! It's a game. 

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Question: The dominant mining pool, at the time of writing this, turns evil and uses its hash-power to reorg the chain. A customer of yours sends you a transaction. If you wait for 10 confirmations, what is the chance that the dominant mining pool successfully double-spends / reverses your transaction?