Re: [Quiz] Answer the Bitcoin question and earn merits! #1
_act_ is right. The probability is 5.11%.
The probability can be calculated using the formula mentioned on page 7 of bitcoin whitepaper.
in which
q is the probability of the the next block being mined by the attacker, p is the probability of the next block being mined by honest nodes and z is the number of confirmations your transactions has received so far.
The C code has been seen on the whitepaper and here is the python code.
The following chart displays how the probability of your transaction being removed from the blockchain decreases with more confirmations.
The probability can be calculated using the formula mentioned on page 7 of bitcoin whitepaper.
in which
q is the probability of the the next block being mined by the attacker, p is the probability of the next block being mined by honest nodes and z is the number of confirmations your transactions has received so far.
The C code has been seen on the whitepaper and here is the python code.
Code:
from math import e,factorial
#Enter q and z and then run the program
q=0.3074
z=10
p=1-q
lambda_= z*(q/p)
sum=0
for k in range(z+1):
sum+=(((lambda_**k)*e**(-lambda_))/factorial(k))*(1-(q/p)**(z-k))
print((1-sum))
#Enter q and z and then run the program
q=0.3074
z=10
p=1-q
lambda_= z*(q/p)
sum=0
for k in range(z+1):
sum+=(((lambda_**k)*e**(-lambda_))/factorial(k))*(1-(q/p)**(z-k))
print((1-sum))
The following chart displays how the probability of your transaction being removed from the blockchain decreases with more confirmations.