so 2025 = $140k(2x)-$210k(3x) rational expectation
so 2029 = $280k(2x)-$630k(3x) rational expectation
so 2033 = $560k(2x)-$1.89m(3x) rational expectation
so 2037 = $1.2m(2x)-$5.67m(3x) rational expectation
Let's not forget the ratio of Bitcoin to other economies. $630k means a market capacity of about 10 trillion dollars, and then the effect of halving will be much less, but miners will depend on transaction fees.
0.828125 Bitcoin for a transaction fee that may be about 1.5 Bitcoin per block, which means that the 4-year pattern will be broken soon and we will not rise by more than $560k(2x)-$1.89m(3x).
market caps are a MEANINGLESS number.. they dont represent real dollars stashed somewhere.. so relax
as for the tx fee's ratio to block rewards
yes that does effect the economics.. but.. heres the rub. not the maxims of ATH as much as the minimums of the post ATH corrections
we already seen how the 2022 NTL(new time low) didnt stop at $20k like previous patterns of not going below the ATH or 5 years prior
which is from my view explained by the rationale of fee's starting to give bonus to rewards to affect underlying costs vs gains
so yes the next ATH and then correction may see the 2026 NTL(new time low) not stop at $70k but go under $70k due to fee bonus