I didnt get that withdrawal rate point. Can you just elaborate it a bit for my understanding. Will be grateful.
BTC could fairly conservatively facilitate 6-10% per year or perhaps even more, as long as you are valuing your stash based on the bottom price (or the 200-WMA) rather than attempting to value your BTC based on top (or spot) prices that tend to be all over the place... even though when you sell, you will of course be selling based on then BTC spot prices.
Correct me if I am wrong. For this to be true, it is mandatory that you have carefully gathered your Bitcoin in DCA manner or in a way that your average price is low compared to spot value (0r 200 WMA) i.e. the value at which you want to sell.
From
my fuck you status chart, you can see that the BTC's 200-WMA (or the bottom) has gone up by more than 20% per year, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to go up more than 20% per year, especially if averaged out, and also you can see with my fuck you status chart that the worst period for the 200-WMA rate of increase was between mid 2022 until late 2023 (which was 20% annually for that period). So in theory, if you are measuring your BTC's value from the bottom price, then you could expect to withdraw based on that even up to 20% and it would still continue to sustain itself in terms of dollar values.. .and to be safe, you could withdraw at a lower rate such as 6% to 10% and still have a cushion, and since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, you can watch it to see if it is starting to get to lower values, otherwise you should be able to sustainably withdraw at way higher rates than you would have had been able to do under traditional investments. You can see more of my sustainable withdraw discussions in
my sustainable withdrawal thread, and some of the linked tools and threads.
You are right that from mid 2022 to late 2023 200-WMA is above Bitcoin price. Apart from that period, most of the time 200 WMA is below Bitcoin price. So we can safely assume that if we are taking 200-WMA is reference then most time its below Bitcoin price. With 200-WMA one can easily figure out how much room he has for withdrawal.
Of course, with
my sustainable withdrawal tool (powered by bitmover), you can back test a variety of theories and timelines to see for yourself that you could have had engaged in pretty high withdrawal rates (even maximizing out the tool at 30%), and BTC still has held its dollar value.. especially over longer periods of time. I recently discussed an example that goes back to June 1, 2019 in
this post. https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy this is a great tool developed by bitmover. Just enter your Bitcoin stash size and you will get to know the authorized BTC withdrawal. I will play more with this tool more to get more info about its working.