It is clear that Chelsea and Newcastle are not easy teams, but I would not say that they are very different now from the other teams next to them in the standings. Wolves, Brighton, West Ham are no worse in my opinion. Chelsea have 10 defeats, Newcastle have 12 overall. I would exclude them from the list of teams in a game with which Tottenham and Aston Villa are obliged to lose points. If you do this, the lists will become completely identical, as will, in my opinion, the chances of these two teams for 4th place.
Tottenham Hotspur will most likely take the fourth place in their next match and will wait four hours to see if Aston Villa will reclaim it but there will be a match difference between them.
This is temporarily obviously and by the end of the season I think Tottenham Hotspur will be fourth, followed by Aston Villa and Manchester United driven by the actual goals difference.
Tottenham will almost certainly beat Luton at home, although Luton are on the verge of relegation from the Premier League and every match is like their last. Aston Villa have a more difficult game with Wolves and I would not be surprised if there is a draw (Wolves have problems with attack, but for example they conceded almost as many goals as Aston Villa).
Generally speaking, I prefer teams that finish strong, for example Tottenham this season was great at the start, but then they went into decline, for Aston Villa it was the other way around, but now the teams are in about the same condition.