What we are seeing in the world today cannot simply be called an economic recession. There are deep social and geopolitical changes where most of the post 90s international business/ trade etiquette has become obsolete. The growth we have witnessed in the last two decades has been due to two major reasons:

1. Proliferation of tech companies and IT services.
2. An active sociopolitical backing for globalization and cross-cultural teams (ensuring cheaper workforce for western companies, especially tech)

Both of these pillars have now outlived their utility. COVID has made companies re-look supply chains while work from home has shown them that maybe they don't actually need all those people. Couple that with the most recent wave of work automation which is being touted as AGI.

All of these factors mean that the whole value arbitrage between countries is changing in real time. This is also one of the times when the fundamental strengths of the American economy are again on full display. It stands to gain the most in this value arbitrage. Next in line is China which has done wonders to its capabilities.

The countries that are most vulnerable are the populous third world nations that have ridden on the west's need to have more "English-speaking" workers to do hitherto menial back-office work. These countries include India and those in SEA. Both of these groups stand to lose big time, unless they can start relying on their internal markets.

In short, we are not in a global recession but there will be a lot of downgrade to life standards in the "dependent third world nations" in the coming time period. I doubt that the US or the developed west has anything to worry about. This whole situation has been intentional and a long time in making to ensure wealth preservation for the Western elite and its playing out beautifully.