I don't think Russia can engage in any new major wars right now until the conflict with Ukraine is resolved. They have invested significant time and resources, yet they haven't been able to achieve victory over Ukraine. Ukraine, with continued support from the West, remains resilient. While Russia is a formidable country, given the current circumstances, I doubt we will see any new conflicts initiated by them this year.
Not only in this year but in years to come and the rhetoric of the many so called analysts that say they can invade other countries assuming Ukraine is already gone is completely wrong.They rely this argument on the fact that the EU and US support for Ukraine is not at the expected levels yet they have not call it a day and they are not backing off,they are supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes and this only has a tall on the Russian army and economy.
In 2000 and 2002 we have seen terror acts like that on the Crocus City Hall and it is well known tactic from Russia to wage war against Chechnya at that time in 2002 to justify that war,now they want to do the same thing with Ukraine but won't work as ISIS took claim of the terror act.