I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.
I think you're speaking for everyone that the 4-year cycle is still the valid thing that we all should look out for, it's the thing that's consistently happening and it hasn't fail each cycle, I'd like to add that we can only be sure that there's supercycle happening or that it's going to happen when it finally happens, sure this is the first time that bitcoin has reached it's peak before halving but it's not the biggest telltale signs that a supercycle is going to happen.
Regarding the people that are going to be affected by this, I think that a lot of us would easily adapt to it in the case that it does happen, a lot of people that's been on the bitcoin market for awhile now have been through a lot of uncertain and volatile market patterns before so it's not really that difficult for us to adapt to changes that may come, even the new generation of bitcoin hodlers and investors are probably good at adaptation at adaptation to compared to past newbies that easily panic whenever the price goes down so bad.