I think he conclude it by analyzing the remaining matches.
I can agree that Liverpool has a higher chance to be the winner because they seem having easier matches.
But Arsenal and Man City look to have the same chance. They still have some big matches, including the match between them (Man City vs Arsenal).
The three teams still have the same chance of winning the EPL title, not just one of them because all three teams also have big matches to play, but Man City still has more matches than Arsenal and Liverpool, namely in the FA Cup so Two teams like Arsenal and Liverpool must make the best use of their time so as not to lose points in every match they face when the Man City players' stamina is drained.