I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.
The block reward is tricky stuff.
For example, if we look back a few months the reward was under 30 mils a day, now ( a bit unusual as faster blocks happened today day) it has spiked to $74 mils, so even the so-called halving cycle will not really mean a decrease of supply in $ value, we were producing 30 mils of coins we're going to produce 35 mils even after this.
Also, the fee is more tied to the value in $, people don't really care about 20sat/vb or 100sat/vb they care what that means in $, so the blocks will never be able to keep an equilibrium there.
I will go with d5000 opinion as I think we're entering a stage of market maturity, and unlike previously the causes for large swing will be gone, as well as a new attitude from the new generation of investors