Well, it cannot be denied that he has a good chance of finishing in the top 4, because he is one point behind Bilbao, although it is possible, he may stay there, but of course now the fights between Bilbao are getting tough. nothing more and he is less with Madrid, it could be March 31, a very tough game, so you can see that it is not so easy for him, now I totally agree with what he says, in fact to be honest, I don't I was hoping to see Atlético in the UCL, the truth is that they are there by pure luck, for me they will not get past Dortmund, however the possibilities are open.
But the team that I see as the most solid is Girona and it will be interesting to see it in the next UCL, so this can cause many things, the first thing must be done so that this team emphasizes the difference with the others, I see Bilbao as very difficult to qualify , but if at least they get a draw with Madrid, well that's not bad, they can do it, and if Atlético loses, well it's more profit for Bilbao.~
Atletico, even despite the decline, remains the favorite in the fight for the top 4, but this is not the level of advantage where we can be at least 60% confident in the outcome. 55% to 45% seems to me a more realistic balance of power.
As for Girona, judging by its recent games, it is now definitely no better than Atlético, Athletic, Barcelona. Girona feels confident only due to the reserve of points they created for themselves earlier. As for their prospects in the Champions League, I would not count on it since it is unknown what will happen in the summer and how many players from this squad will remain in Girona (and whether there will be serious acquisitions to replace the departed players + reinforcements).
It is looking like Atletico will have to fight so hard to win the 4th position against Atletic Bilbao. It may not be an easy run like you are suggesting and using past record at this time may be disappointing. The lost their last two matches to Barcelona and Cadiz when it was expected they would have at least won Cadiz. They are still playing the Champions league after defeating Inter Milan, this will be a major distraction to them. They will be facing Valencia in their next match and it is looking like they will lose the match because Valencia have a very strong home performance meanwhile Atletico have a terrible away record. If they continue losing poinst, how will they secure the fourth position? The road to the fourth position is more favorable to Atletic Bilbao than Atletico Madrid.