I think he conclude it by analyzing the remaining matches.
I can agree that Liverpool has a higher chance to be the winner because they seem having easier matches.
But Arsenal and Man City look to have the same chance. They still have some big matches, including the match between them (Man City vs Arsenal).
I also think that Liverpool will be the number 1 candidate. Personally, I would rate Manchester City as a strong and comprehensive team, but I would also favor Liverpool to have the upper hand in the race to win this championship. Because Arsenal vs Manchester City will have fierce battles in the Champions League. Meanwhile, Liverpool can entirely devote all their efforts to the Premier League.
But in football, we don't know what crazy things will happen. Arsenal is exploding at the end of the season. Meanwhile, Guardiola is still ambitious about winning the successive treble.