Old comment from last week I know but I think I mentioned this a few months ago, Serie A stopped becoming BTTS nest, so I only put about 30% of my picks as BTTS, everything else goes for zero score on the losing side.

But no, it's definitely luck. I'm probably like you more or less, logical with picks but in Serie A I'm less aware of team abilities than Prem League and doing better -- I did look back at some previous scores and apparently, bookies didn't favour the likes of Roma, Fiorentina, Lazio, many times, but they came out with wins or draws. So in my lagging understanding I still picked them to win, and got the "upset".

So, revisiting this theme, Juve-Lazio sees the books go for Juve. In our old understanding, 2-1 Juventus is good, but I think we need to consider 1-0 or 0-1 and Lazio to not be as shit as the odds suggest.

P.S. This is how I mess with minds. It usually backfires