I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.

The thing that could affect the four-year cycle is transaction fees. If they rise sharply, exceeding an average of 1.5 per block, then the price of Bitcoin will definitely be stable and we will not witness changes every 4 years.

Right.  Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating.  In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes.  I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone.