Hmm... I thought there was direct logic here (I leave all the quotes so that the dialogue is visible from the very beginning): odds 2 (which seemed dubious to you) means that this event will occur with exactly 50% probability (let’s not waste time and remember about the bookmaker’s margin ). That is, if Arsenal can win one of the two games against Bayern, then odds 2 are fair. And in my opinion, Arsenal, as the leader of the Premier League, in a home game against the second Bundesliga team is obliged to win one game out of two (50% on average = odds 2 on bookmaker language).
As I understand from your comment, you think that Arsenal should be listed in the range of 2.5-3, and this means that Arsenal is not capable of winning one game out of two against Bayern on average.
Correct, that's what I said. If they were to play 100 games given the current set up and given the fact that Bayern Munich seems to be on an uptrend just right now, I believe that Arsenal would not win 50 games at home out of those 100 games. Of course if they play this same game twice, could end in a 100% win rate Arsenal. But hypothetically, I would put Arsenal at 33 to 40 wins maximum out of 100 games all things equal.
If this experiment were run a 100 times and Arsenal would end up with 40 wins, 40 draws and 20 losses, at least in my opinion it seems to be realistic. But hey, I don't have a crystal ball, would just be my estimate
50 just sounds too high to me. There is still the draw and then of course the possibility that they lose against a Bayern Munich team that is on fire and all of their top players are on board.