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Yes, it is obvious that for Real to reach the final they need to win against City + Bayern/Arsenal. Individually, these tasks are quite realistic, but collectively the chance is reduced. I think that the overall probability of this is approximately 30% (by the way, the same as for the other teams from this thread towards the finals).
13-14 and 15-16 - those were good times, the two best teams from Madrid found out who is the strongest club in Europe (and the World)
That makes sense to me. The game against City is the biggest hurdle they have to take on their way to the final. I don't see Bayern quite on the same level as City, but as you said taking both hurdles combined makes it less likely for them to get into the final. But the team is absolutely ready for those games. Good to see that Vinicius Junior is doing well again after his injuries. I love watching him play. I feel he sometimes gets too distracted by this idiotic racism shit, but as long as he can turn it into positive anger and play one level above his best, it's ok for him as a player (not as a human being though as that should be handled far more rigorously).
If Real can take the City hurdle, I think they'll be the favorite in the next stage no matter whether Arsenal or Bayern make it there.
That's a brave analysis, but I don't think that Manchester City would be the easier opponent when there was a choice between Bayern Munich and City. Bayern Munich is getting back to old strength these days, but Manchester City doesn't have these games where they completely collapse. Bayern lost against Lazio, but I doubt that that would have happened to City if they had played against Lazio. But anyway, there are some very good teams still in the Champions League and we can guaranteed look forward to some amazing clashes in the coming weeks!