Though real Madrid stand on a very higher chance to win the match but since Vinicius will not be playing the match they will need to be very caution on that match because since Bilbao has known that real Madrid attacking force is normally piloted by Vinicius and seeing that he will be absent on this match they will try as much as possible to to take advantage of the opportunity but though one thing i like about real Madrid is that in as much as Vinicius is a very important player on the club they also have other good players that will cover up in other for them to remain the way they are, so actually considering how consistent real Madrid has been I have a strong confident they will win Bilbao.
Yes, Vinicius would be very useful in such a match, but I see that Joselu is returning to the game, so everything is not so bad for Real. Barcelona is still 8 points behind them, so even if Real plays a draw, it will not be a critical loss of points for Real, but despite the fact that Bilbao is now in excellent shape, beating Real at the Bernabeu is almost an impossible task, in my opinion Real Madrid have not lost a single official game at home this season.
Vinicius' absence will not have a big impact on the performance of the Real Madrid team because this team does not depend on just one player, they have quality players in all lines and even if there is player rotation it will not have a significant effect on the team's performance.
The points advantage over Barcelona is also quite beneficial for the Real Madrid team because it allows them to play comfortably and freely without any burdens.
For a match at home, I think Real Madrid will be very difficult to beat.