But why 50k$ or not 40k$ or 60k$? There will be no specific numbers when it comes to bitcoin because bitcoins fluctuations do not completely depend on supply and demand. Bitcoin prices are still largely manipulated, and the price of bitcoin is determined by market makers . I don't believe in supply and demand at this stage as bitcoin is still too small and too easily manipulated . But personally I don't think they will let bitcoin fall before the halving, the price will continue to increase and will reach ATH before the halving occurs.
From a historical, technical perspective it could drop down to 25k or even 20k, as we started a run up to 15k in the very beginning and reached a bearish position down to 3k, which is 1/5 from that first high.
Another bull run went all the way up to about 57k and dropped back to 15k, which again is about 1/4 of the second reached high.
So if we expect a new bullrun to reach ~200k, a drop to a max of 40k could be realistic. Should a bullrun end already on a 100k, then a drop as mentioned above (25-20k) could be an option also.
IMHO after this halving we probably wont see anything below 20k again.
And Im very optimistic that we will cut the 100k on BTC this upcoming halving with this extraordinary greed right now.
Btw we have already reached the alltime high on BTC, correct me if Im wrong
$20k - $25k is realistically possible of course that is based on the previous halving. But some are actually hoping to see a price floor of $10k especially those who was not able to maximize their opportunity to get more fragments.
However, we might not be able to see a sharp decline in the next several months. We might be able to see it around 2025 after everything in the bull market subsides.
The question currently is, whether or not bitcoin will surely get to 6 digits in the post halving.