Basically, Napoli will remain the favorite team to win because they are playing at home and also, this match will be the right moment for Napoli to overtake Atalanta. However, if you consider about a record of winning the Scudetto, that factor cannot be used as a benchmark at all to determine the winner in a match like this. However, if you consider the situation and conditions that are occurring at this moment, of course it will be a better consideration or assessment. After all, based on existing head to head records, the reality is that Napoli has a good winning result every time Napoli plays against Atalanta. Therefore, it is certainly not surprising that in this match Napoli is still the team projected to win because indeed, at least Napoli is still performing well even though Napoli have a new coach after the previous new coach was fired.
This is a crucial match for both teams to chase sixth place this week. Napoli is currently in seventh place with 45 points and Atalanta with 47 points. Napoli is two points behind Atalanta in sixth place. So whoever team wins this match, that team will be in sixth place.
Apart from what you mentioned, Napoli in terms of play has also improved since being coached by Calzona. Even though they were eliminated from the UCL League, Napoli managed to achieve two wins and three draws in their last five matches in Serie A, including when Napoli beat Juventus 2-1. The Atalanta team itself has a very difficult time getting points in away matches, so I predict that this match will also be won by Napoli with a score of 2-1.